Will a U.S. military service member kill a U.S. citizen protester before 2026?
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2026
32%
chance
6

I will resolve this question as "yes," if the New York Times publishes a story stating that a U.S. citizen, involved in a protest situation, was killed by a U.S. military service member in the year 2025.

This may not be resolved within 2025 because a confirmed killing may occur as late as 12/31/2025.

I will post a free-access link to the Times article I use as confirmation of a "yes" resolution.

  • Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for a 'yes' resolution, the U.S. military service member involved must be on-duty. Incidents where the service member is off-duty will not count.

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Does it count if they are off duty?

@LarsOsborne Great question! For the sake of the argument in my head, no, it will not count.

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