Will Donald Trump openly defy court orders?
Mini
9
389
2026
65%
chance

Historically, American presidents have been required to obey court orders. However, the military and law enforcement formally report to the President, not the courts, and past presidents have sometimes defied judges (eg. Lincoln in 1861, with Ex parte Merryman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_parte_Merryman).

During his first term, Trump obeyed many court orders, but defied judges who ruled that his Department of Homeland Security appointments were illegal. Officials such as Chad Wolf (Secretary of Homeland Security) and Ken Cuccinelli (Director of USCIS) remained in office for over a year, even after judges ruled that their positions were unlawful and their acts were legally void (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Department_of_Homeland_Security_appointment_disputes).

This market resolves YES if, during 2025, Donald Trump or his administration openly defy at least three court orders against their staff, policies, or actions. Defiance must be overt and continuing, and widely reported in reliable sources, as determined by Wikipedia consensus. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

Court orders against government officials in their personal capacity, unrelated to official actions (eg. a Trump staffer charged with using cocaine), do not count. Court orders against state governments, or private people or organizations, do not count.

If Donald Trump does not serve as President during 2025, this market resolves N/A.

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