Will the Trump admin deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?
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2029
15%
January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)
42%
February 20, 2025 (First month)
50%
April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)
50%
January 20, 2026 (First year)
50%
January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

Resolves YES if the Trump admin deploys federal law enforcement or the military to crack down on a protest by "radical left lunatics"

I am defining crackdown here to mean a severe retaliation for a protest and/or riot, not necessarily done by any political affiliation (to not complicate the resolution criteria). This either means:

  1. 500+ arrests and/or 100+ injuries in a day across the US

  2. 2,000+ arrests and/or 400+ injuries in any 7-day period across the US

(For reference, BLM protests and riots following George Floyd's death saw 14,000 arrests in ~a month)

If there are protests across two cities that had federal law enforcement presence, which result in 100+ injuries during that day, the question resolves YES. If one of those cities only had local law enforcement but not federal law enforcement, only the arrests and injuries in the city that deployed federal law enforcement would count.

If there is enough information that Trump or someone in his cabinet called for federal law enforcement to be deployed and it meets the criteria above for "crackdown", this resolves YES. If Trump claims responsibility for that crackdown, the question resolves YES.

NOTE: I am assuming federal law enforcement cannot be deployed to crack down on protests without the president's authorization, but if I'm wrong please correct me.

NOTE: The period evaluated for the first option, January 20 (Inauguration day), only counts if the crackdown happens during the Trump admin (i.e. only that day counts, starting at midnight on the 20th)

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