https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/18/trump-administration-transition/ - Trump says that this is his plan
Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Threshold for "assisting": Military assistance must be above a de minimis amount to count.
Examples that do NOT count:
Setting up GMOC (presumably Guantamo Migrant Operations Center)
Having a small amount of undocumented immigrants on military flights
Examples that DO count:
Military personnel going to cities to grab/apprehend people
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): National Guard is included in what counts as "US military" for this market.
Deportations near the border count (not just interior/cities).
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Military deportation flights do count as assistance if the number is substantial. The threshold is more than 30 flights - fewer than 30 flights (like the initial GMOC flights) would not be sufficient to resolve YES.
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If GMOC (Guantanamo Migrant Operations Center) gets off the ground in a substantial way, that would count as YES for this market. The initial GMOC flights have been minimal and don't count, but a fully operational GMOC would meet the threshold for military assistance in deportations.
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@Rolledupaces Here are various ways the US military assisted with deportations in 2025:
- Flights. There doesn’t seem to be a full, official list, but media has reported there were “nearly 90” such flights. I believe there was a similar number of deportation-related flights to Guantanamo, so depending on what you count, maybe a total around 175-180.
- Border operations, including the expansion of military zones along the border, which gives the military much greater authority to detain.
- Extensive use of the National Guard in the interior, for example to support ICE e.g. Operation Midway Blitz.
- Military bases used for detention. I believe this included bases in Texas, Guantanamo, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, and possibly elsewhere, as well as less established “soft sided” facilities.
- Senator Warren and others have issued a report, finding “that DoD has committed at least $2 billion to support immigration enforcement through mobilizing and deploying troops to American cities and the Southern border, deporting and transporting immigrants on military aircrafts, detaining individuals on U.S. military installations, and more”. https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/new-report-from-senator-warrens-office-reveals-trump-administration-siphoned-at-least-2-billion-from-military-budget-for-immigration-enforcement
- The DoD notes assistance in the form of “case management, transportation and logistical support, and clerical support”, https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4256444/statement-by-chief-pentagon-spokesman-sean-parnell-on-dod-personnel-support-to/
Some of these might be de minimis on their own, but taken all together the assistance was material. Clarifications aside, I think that by any plain reading of the question, YES, the US military very much did assist.
Edit: apparently also intelligence and surveillance. So a lot of different forms of assistance.
@Rolledupaces I suppose my main question is what counts as "mass deportations"? Is there some threshold? How many deportations were there in 2025, and how does that compare to other years?
@EvanDaniel Formal deportations (so not including "self deportations") appear to have been much higher in 2025 than in any prior year, about 50% above the previous highest and much higher than average. If you go back many decades, the data gets less like-for-like, but in the modern era, yes. There also seems to have been much more focus on the interior than before, rather than the border.
@Rolledupaces Does this include National Guard? Does it include deportations near the border, or only cities / interior?
@Rolledupaces - does providing logistical assistance such as deportation flights count as assisting, for this market?
@SacredChicken if it’s above a de minimus amount, then yes. Let helping set up GMOC or having some small amount of undocumented immigrants on military flights doesn’t count but military personal going to cities to grab people would count.
@MattP I’m saying it does count but it has to be more than just like less than 30 flights like the few flights they have had to the GMOC
@MattP I have no idea how many flights went to GMOC so I was only using 30 as a rough guess on the maximum but for the most part the GMOC hasn’t gotten off the ground. If it did, I would consider that a yes.
@Enlil If he actually uses military to deport immigrants for a period of time, then it resolves to yes. If it never gets off the ground, then it resolves no.