Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions
8
150Ṁ11952026
96%
We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).
80%
Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.
77%
No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”.
54%
Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic will escalate.
34%
2025 will be known as the year of the peak bubble, and also the moment at which Wall Street began to lose confidence in generative AI.
43%
Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate.
Related to this blog post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
Resolution criteria:
If Marcus gives a followup on his predictions, it will resolve to his recap of whether he was right in the blog post.
If there is no followup blog post, I will ask the #1 AI model on the LMArena whether these were fulfilled, and it will resolve to that.
If AI chatbots are illegal, non-functional, or otherwise not accessible in the US at EOY 2026, resolves to a poll. Will also resolve to a poll if LMArena shuts down.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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