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MANIFOLD
Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?
4
Ṁ1kṀ301
Nov 3
63%
chance

This market will resolve YES if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Democratic Party wins at least 225 seats.

  • Definition of "Democratic Seat": Any seat won by a candidate who ran on the Democratic ballot line. Independents who caucus with Democrats do not count toward this total unless they were elected as Democrats.

  • Resolution Source: This market will resolve based on the "Partisan Breakdown" table provided by Ballotpedia (link below).

  • Timing: Resolution will occur once Ballotpedia has called all 435 races. If any race is subject to a recount or legal challenge, resolution will be delayed until a winner is certified or conceded.

  • Special Case: If a seat is vacant on Election Day, it is not counted until the 2026 general election result for that district is finalized.

Resolution Link: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2026

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