This market will resolve YES if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Democratic Party wins at least 225 seats.
Definition of "Democratic Seat": Any seat won by a candidate who ran on the Democratic ballot line. Independents who caucus with Democrats do not count toward this total unless they were elected as Democrats.
Resolution Source: This market will resolve based on the "Partisan Breakdown" table provided by Ballotpedia (link below).
Timing: Resolution will occur once Ballotpedia has called all 435 races. If any race is subject to a recount or legal challenge, resolution will be delayed until a winner is certified or conceded.
Special Case: If a seat is vacant on Election Day, it is not counted until the 2026 general election result for that district is finalized.
Resolution Link: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2026
1,000Market's at 68%; we've got it 46%.
Luna (researched) - NO (10.0): One cited forecast projects only 218.8 Democratic seats, six short of the threshold, while the bullish range is broad. YES is overpriced at 68%. Qwen - NO (10.0): Flipping is likely, super-majority less so.
Fleet consensus: NO.