Will Neuralink begin recruitment for the clinical trial of its brain implants by the end of Jul 15, 2023?
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348
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resolved Jul 16
Resolved
NO

Note: The patient registry available on Neuralink's official website (as available onJun 20) will not count for a YES resolution since that registration is not recruitment/enrollment for their clinical trial.

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Resolving NO as Neuralink's official website says it currently doesn't have any clinical trials available for enrollment. Nothing in the news as well.

https://neuralink.com/patient-registry/

bought Ṁ100 of NO

still nothing on ct.gov, still nothing on the neuralink website. Ez money

@PeterBuyukliev There is definitely no requirement for them to do either of those things.

predicted NO

@BTE there is definitely a requirement to list the trial on ct.gov, and while there is no requirement to annouce anything on their website, it is still some evidence in favour of no trial yet.

@PeterBuyukliev Only NIH funded trials are required to list.

predicted YES

You're right, you made that clear in the other market. For the record, I would definitely classify this as 'recruitment', even though it is not 'enrollment'.

I was updating off this:

https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-neuralink-human-trial-schedule-estimate/

"During Elon Musk’s visit to France, the billionaire estimated that Neuralink would start its first human trial before the end of this year.

. . .

Neuralink posted its patient registry on its official website. Neuralink’s patient registry asks willing participants about their conditions, including if they are quadriplegic, paraplegic, are visually impaired, have aphasia or hearing impairments. The registry application includes the consent form, provides Neuralink authorization to use and disclose the patients’ medical records and questionnaire. "

@TANSTAAFL Enrollment and recruitment are used interchangeably when talking about clinical trials. In hindsight, I should have mentioned that the patient registry won't count but even without that, the patient registry should not be mistaken for recruitment because they are different things.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7342338/

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Recruiting has started and patient registry is open.

https://neuralink.com/patient-registry/

sold Ṁ84 of YES

@TANSTAAFL The patient registry has been up since the FDA approval was announced. The clinical trial has not yet started though and the patient registry doesn't count towards a YES resolution as was the case for the June market.

From Neuralink's patient registry page:

Neuralink does not currently have any clinical trials available for enrollment. If you participate in the Patient Registry and we determine that you meet preliminary eligibility for future clinical trials, we may contact you to inform you of these trials once they become available.