Who will I date? | Manifold Markets

closes May 31

Who will I date?

If I go on four or more dates with a submitted name at any point within the next year, I will resolve 'yes' to that name. If I go on four or more dates with more than two names, then I'm still only resolving yes to the first name. If I don't go on four or more dates with any submitted name, will resolve n/a or whatever the equivalent option is. (If I'm not clear who the name refers to, like if there's multiple John Smiths, then I won't select any of them; if it's a common/ambiguous name please include some identifying description, such as a twitter handle!) Also any people who I've *already* gone on a date with in the past three years are names I will not select, even if I go on four additional dates with them.

Vince Offer

55%

None of the above

24%

Destiny aka Steven Kenneth Bonnell II

17%

Eliezer Yudkowsky

1.1%

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One of these must be mispriced. Really wish we could short free response answers.

@IsaacKing false, you explicitly gave resolution criteria that disagree with the listed resolution criteria here

@SeraphinaNix https://manifold.markets/Alana/did-isaac-just-get-owned-and-roaste?r=QWxhbmE

Jonas Kamper answered

Andrew Tate!

Jonas Kamperbought Ṁ10

@JonasKamper this is a troll entry all in good fun.i hope nobody gets offended

Alanabought Ṁ8 of Alana (me!)

Just shooting my shot…

GeorgeVii answered

Nate Soares

Sinclair Chensold Ṁ20

@GeorgeVii can't get picked: "Also any people who I've already gone on a date with in the past three years are names I will not select, even if I go on four additional dates with them."

GeorgeViisold Ṁ4 of Nate Soares

@Sinclair Ah, good point

Martin Randall answered

Vlad Sitalo

Martin Randall @Sinclair it may also depend on what he picks in his life improvement market.

Martin Randall answered

Vlad Sitalo

Sinclair Chenbought Ṁ3unlikely, but likelier than the other Vlad lol

Austin answered

Austin Chen

Sinclair Chen @Austin this is too high. Are you poly now? If so I need to insider trade your gf market

agrippa answered

ELON MUSK!

Sinclair Chen @agrippa https://manifold.markets/TheresaBarton/aella-girl-will-be-elon-musks-girlf

Matt P answered

Martin Randall

Martin Randall @MattP I'm not sure whether to look at the new 0% probability as a vote for my fidelity or a vote against my datability.

Matt P answered

Martin Randall

Matt P @MartinRandall I can't wait for the eventual free response markets 2.0. Shorting answers, fixed payouts, anti-spam tools, probably free donuts too. It'll be glorious.

Matt P answered

Martin Randall

Martin Randall @MattP when do I get to short this?

agrippa answered

ELON MUSK!

Youssef Rabeibought Ṁ5@agrippa make perfect sense lol

Austin answered

Austin Chen

1 bet

agrippa answered

ELON MUSK!

Ellie Highbought Ṁ20@agrippa lets goo

1 define date

Alex Power answered

Bill Gates

Alex Powerbought Ṁ2I've heard he's divorced. Also, as a public figure, there aren't privacy issues related to throwing his name into the ring.

Manifold Markets 👉🥺👈

Austin answered

Austin Chen

Jack Would also help resolve https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-austin-chen-get-a-girlfriend-a!

Eugger bought Ṁ1 None of the above at 24%

Andrew Hebb sold Ṁ19 None of the above at 24%

Fedor Beets sold Ṁ49 None of the above from 25% to 24%

Eugger bought Ṁ4 None of the above at 25%

Adrian bought Ṁ100 Destiny aka Steven K... from 14% to 17%

Fedor Beets bought Ṁ50 None of the above from 25% to 26%

Manu Padmaraagam sold Ṁ10 None of the above at 25%

Thunderstar sold Ṁ16 Destiny aka Steven K... from 15% to 14%

Patrick sold Ṁ34 Destiny aka Steven K... at 15%

Patrick sold Ṁ9 Destiny aka Steven K... from 16% to 15%

Daniel Filan bought Ṁ10 None of the above from 24% to 25%

Daniel Filan bought Ṁ10 Martin Shkreli from 0.1% to 0.4%

Arkfille bought Ṁ50 None of the above from 23% to 24%

Patrick bought Ṁ10 Destiny aka Steven K... at 16%

ok bought Ṁ50 Destiny aka Steven K... from 14% to 16%

Eugger bought Ṁ1 None of the above at 24%

iteal sold Ṁ7 Me :) from 0.2% to 0.0%

RBGreen bought Ṁ100 Destiny aka Steven K... from 12% to 14%

RBGreen bought Ṁ50 Destiny aka Steven K... from 10% to 12%

RBGreen bought Ṁ30 Destiny aka Steven K... from 9% to 10%

RBGreen bought Ṁ10 None of the above at 25%

RBGreen bought Ṁ3 Destiny aka Steven K... at 9%

RBGreen bought Ṁ2 Eliezer Yudkowsky at 1.2%

RBGreen bought Ṁ1 Ranveer Kunal from 1.0% to 1.1%

Help Doge Fix His Broken Toe sold Ṁ45 Destiny aka Steven K... from 11% to 9%

Help Doge Fix His Broken Toe bought Ṁ45 Destiny aka Steven K... from 9% to 11%

MaxG sold Ṁ7 None of the above at 25%

paleink bought Ṁ40 None of the above from 24% to 25%

paleink bought Ṁ25 Destiny aka Steven K... at 9%

Manu Padmaraagam bought Ṁ10 None of the above at 24%

SirSalty bought Ṁ100 Destiny aka Steven K... from 6% to 9%

Michael bought Ṁ20 None of the above from 24% to 25%

alt bought Ṁ10 Destiny aka Steven K... from 5% to 6%

Nikola bought Ṁ2 Lex Fridman from 0.5% to 0.6%

Andrew Hebb bought Ṁ20 None of the above at 24%

Thunderstar bought Ṁ10 Destiny aka Steven K... from 5% to 6%

Adam bought Ṁ2 Lex Fridman at 0.5%

Adam bought Ṁ2 roon from 0.2% to 0.3%

Adam bought Ṁ2 Duncan Sabien from 0.1% to 0.2%

Adam bought Ṁ250 None of the above from 17% to 24%

Adam bought Ṁ100 None of the above from 14% to 17%

Adam bought Ṁ100 None of the above from 11% to 14%

Adam bought Ṁ100 None of the above from 8% to 11%

Michael bought Ṁ2 Destiny aka Steven K... at 6%

Michael bought Ṁ2 None of the above at 8%

Spindle bought Ṁ3,000 Vince Offer from 0.0% to 80%

RBGreen bought Ṁ1 ELON MUSK! from 0.3% to 0.4%

RBGreen bought Ṁ1 Raj Thimmiah at 0.1%

RBGreen bought Ṁ1 Nate Soares from 0.0% to 0.1%

iteal bought Ṁ20 Me :) from 0.0% to 1.7%

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Will I ever find a partner?95%

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Will I ever get married?73%

Will my dating doc be instrumental in my finding someone to date seriously?52%

Will I discover the identity of my secret admirer?29%

Will I marry Caitlyn this year?80%

What will the first character of the md5 hash of the person I date next be?

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Related markets

Will I ever find a partner?95%

Will I get a girlfriend this year?77%

Will I ever get married?73%

Will my dating doc be instrumental in my finding someone to date seriously?52%

Will I discover the identity of my secret admirer?29%

Will I marry Caitlyn this year?80%

What will the first character of the md5 hash of the person I date next be?

Will I genuinely LOVE someone on manifold by the end of April?46%

Will I get a cat this year?34%