When will I have a romantic relationship?

Resolution Criteria:

  • Resolves to the year I enter a romantic relationship, recognized one month after it begins (it doesn't count if it ends within a month). For example, if I start dating someone on May 4, 2026, and we're still together on June 4, 2026, it'll resolve to 2026-2027.

  • Resolves to 2049-2050 If I haven't entered a romantic relationship by the end of 2049.

  • Resolves to N/A by a moderator if I die or my account becomes inactive.

  • Here, a "romantic relationship" includes any arrangement (like monogamous, open, or polyamorous) where at least one person is romantically and sentimentally involved with me (more than just friends and / or sexual partners).

  • In polyamory or relationships with multiple people, the one-month milestone counts if at least one person who was initially romantically involved with me is still in the relationship after a month, regardless of others leaving. If the original group changes entirely within a month, the one-month count starts over.

  • Long-distance relationships count (though I’m not really looking for that).

Insider Info That May Be Relevant:

  • Male, born in 2001, in Spain (León).

  • I'm studying Computer Science.

  • I have two cats.

  • Bisexual and biromantic, I generally lean more towards women.

  • I'm not selective with women but very picky when it comes to men.

  • I'm seeing both a psychologist and a psychiatrist for depression, which has been getting somewhat better over the last two years.

  • In the last year (since taking antidepressants) I have gained ~25kg (55.11lb).

  • 1.75m (5.74 ft) tall. 112kg (246.9lb) weight. BMI (Body Mass Index): 36.6 (obesity type II). Endomorphic body type.

  • My Tinder profile: https://tinder.com/@pablo1169 (the photo with my two cats is the more recent one).

  • Since April 2024, I have started going to the gym regularly, twice or more per week, and approximately ~3 hours each time. The type of food I eat hasn't changed, and I am not following any special diet (my eating habits remain regularly bad regarding the quantity and type of food). I'm surprisingly not as fat as I should be. Under different circumstances (before, when I wasn't taking antidepressants), I would consider myself to have a moderate or fast metabolism.

  • I prefer non-monogamous relationships but open to monogamy too.

  • Jealousy isn't really my thing, but I do get quite envious for some things.

  • People describe me as weird, both in a good and bad way.

  • The only "romantic relationship" I had was back when I was 12 years old, with a girl (it lasted a year).

  • Actively trying to get into a romantic relationship since 2017 with no success.

  • Honestly, I might just be really bad at flirting, or maybe I'm just unlucky (or both).

  • I have a small social network of friends, I don't like going out much. Is unlikely that I will meet anyone to date outside of dating apps.

  • I’ve been actively using Tinder, Badoo, OkCupid, Boo, and Feeld since 2021 (only paid for Tinder in January 2024).

  • I've racked up over 150 matches on Tinder.

  • My tastes? Well, for men, I usually go for the twink/femboy look, and for women, I'm into the goth/alt style. While in women I don't need it to match my ideal, in men it is usually yes (or very close to it) for me to like it. For non-binary folks, my interest depends on their aesthetic, physique, and overall vibe. I am drawn to affectionate and quirky personalities, preferring those who enjoy low-key activities over those who are party-oriented.

  • I always make an effort to keep conversations going with my matches and never ghost anyone. I stop responding if they do, or (if we've met in person) if they fail to reply after two messages.

  • Others say I make a better impression in person than through messages. In person, my expressive language often stands out positively. When I meet someone usually involve walking and talking, lasting between four to eight hours (as much as the other person wants).

  • I have met 14 people in person: 10 women, 2 non-binary, and 2 men. I had sexual encounters with 2 women (one-time each). I maintained a one-year friendship with one woman (which ended). With 4 women, 1 non-binary, and 1 man, there were discussions about potentially starting a romantic relationship, but none materialized.

  • Aside from that "romantic relationship" when I was 12, that’s pretty much my entire romantic and sexual history.

  • Despite limited sexual experiences, I'm very sex positive and fetish/kink friendly. I won't date someone who is fully vanilla.

  • If a reliable AI-driven dating service pops up, no matter the cost, I’ll probably give it a shot (as long as I can afford it).

  • In my personal life goals, establishing a meaningful, healthy, lasting romantic relationship is my second priority (with a satisfying sexual life as third). Considering this, along with the unlikelihood of achieving my top life goal (refer to my Reality Shifting markets), I assure you that I am dedicated to finding a romantic relationship due to its significant importance to me.

  • I won’t announce any new relationships on social media or here until they've lasted at least a month.

  • If any of my friends use Manifold and know about my dating status, I'll make sure they don't bet on this market within that first critical month. I'll call them out in comments and the description if they do.

  • I'll keep updating my info here as needed.

Advice: You can bet as you like; however, I would advise against betting on very distant year intervals. I would like to believe that, despite my bad luck, I will enter a relationship before 2050, so a N/A resolution seems much more likely than a resolution for a very distant year interval. Additionally, I have no current plans to leave Manifold and I hope not to die before 2050, so I would consider a N/A resolution less likely than a resolution for nearer year intervals. Consider that if we achieve AGI around or before ~2030, there would likely be an AI/product or service for dating with a high success rate and, even if it is expensive, as I have stated, I would try it.

OP Trading: Given the subjetive nature of this market’s resolution, I won't bet in this market.

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