Resolution

Settles to the official Adjacent daily settlement value for RED timestamped Nov. 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, before Election Day results are known and before the relevant 2026 election contracts reach near certainty or roll per RED’s methodology. The primary source is Adjacent’s official RED index page: https://adjacent.markets/indices/red. The official API or CSV export can be used as the source of truth.

Background

Adjacent Markets, Inc. is an indexing and benchmarking company for prediction markets and event contracts. Its RED index is a forward-looking political index comprised of underlying event contracts from Kalshi’s prediction market exchange. It provides insight into Republican power and sentiment projections across five core office categories (i.e., Presidential, Senate, House, Gubernatorial, and Mayoral) using event contract prices from a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange.
RED is not a forecast of any single race, but rather a benchmark for broad Republican political expectations. Adjacent Markets, Inc. is the acting Index Sponsor, Calculation Agent, and governance authority of the RED index. The index value is published and can be tracked here: https://adjacent.markets/indices/red. Full methodology can be found at https://adjacent.markets/static/red/methodology