2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
1
Ṁ300Ṁ260Feb 3
90%
Democrats, ≥4%
87%
Democrats, ≥5%
84%
Democrats, ≥6%
71%
Democrats, ≥7%
70%
Democrats, ≥8%
55%
Democrats, ≥9%
52%
Democrats, ≥10%
50%
Democrats, ≥11%
30%
Democrats, ≥12%
24%
Democrats, ≥13%
15%
Democrats, ≥14%
13%
Democrats, ≥16%
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03-al10
Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
Kalshi's rules: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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