Will a major US political figure be assassinated in 2022.
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Ṁ1061resolved Dec 31
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This question resolves to YES if at least one of the following are confirmed dead due to some form of voluntary homicide by the end of 2022: the president, vice president, a sitting member of the cabinet, a sitting member of the Federal House of Representatives or Senate, or a sitting Federal Supreme Court Justice.
Otherwise, resolves to NO on January 1st, 2023.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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For base rates, the last time a person from those categories was assassinated was Rep. Leo Ryan in 1978. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinated_American_politicians
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