Will a major US political figure be assassinated in 2022.
Basic
20
Ṁ1061resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves to YES if at least one of the following are confirmed dead due to some form of voluntary homicide by the end of 2022: the president, vice president, a sitting member of the cabinet, a sitting member of the Federal House of Representatives or Senate, or a sitting Federal Supreme Court Justice.
Otherwise, resolves to NO on January 1st, 2023.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
For base rates, the last time a person from those categories was assassinated was Rep. Leo Ryan in 1978. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinated_American_politicians
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an assassination of a US head of Government by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will there be any assassination attempt on Donald Trump during the term of his presidency?
59% chance
Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will any head of state or head of government of a UN member country be assassinated in 2024?
11% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on Joe Biden before the end of 2024?
5% chance
Major US politician assassinated in Trump's name (2028)
25% chance
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
68% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
14% chance
Conditional on Trump winning the presidency in 2024, will he be assassinated in office?
16% chance