Major US politician assassinated in Trump's name (2028)
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Reacting to these three remarks, one attributed to Trump, one to a Trump ally, and one to his lawyers.

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Major US politician:

  • Current or former House representative, Senator, governor, WH cabinet member, or president

  • Current candidate (e.g. declared at time of assassination) who has reached double digits in their current race for one of these positions in at least one credible poll

In Trump's name:

  • Direct order from Trump

  • Trump, Trump cabinet member, or Trump "ally" (referred to as such by a credible media organization) charged in connection with the assassination

    • (Not going with convicted because who knows what future we'd be living in then -- but might N/A if the allegations seem bogus)

  • Person who is convicted of / pleads guilty to assassination admits to doing it in support of Trump's cause, or in what they interpret as Trump's interest (or credible media organization strongly suggests that this is the case)

2028:

  • Intended this to mean after another full presidential term has passed, so I'm also including the first 20 days of January 2029

  • Act, but not conviction, must be committed by this date

Open to criticism, this is a tough resolution criterion to nail.

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Unclear. By 2028 or IN 2028? Act committed in/by 2028 or convicted/plead by 2028?

Act, not conviction. Clarified description on this point as well.

Time frame is also unclear? When does this close?

I think the "in Trump's name" is a bit of a weird criterion, and probably doesn't quite capture what you want to predict?

For example, the Whitmer assassination plot is clearly far-right and also (less clearly) related to Trump smearing her and chants of "lock her up" at his rallies, but would it qualify for this question?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer_kidnapping_plot

If successful, yes it would. I suppose "In Trump's interest" in the description created ambiguity.

I really meant the act was something the assassin interpreted as being in favor of Trump's cause (even if Trump does not explicitly condone it)

Also -- looks like I messed up the market close date... oops. I meant for it to end on the next Inauguration Day after this one, so after another full presidential term has passed. Will clarify this in the description.

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