Will the next President of the USA (elected in 2024) die before the end of their term in office.
51
1kαΉ€2761
2029
20%
chance

Resolves YES if they die before inauguration.

If they die before inauguration, they aren't the next President, so this wouldn't resolve yet.

Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

With Joe Biden out, this market should probably shift

Clarification requested: is resignation followed by death within original term of office a Yes or a No?

@patio11 I would resolve that as NO

Would appreciate if someone brought in the survival statistics conditional on age, income, etc

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Terms + Mana-only Termsβ€’Privacyβ€’Rules