11. Will any new country join NATO in 2023?
80%
chance

Sweden and Finland completing the accession process would count as new countries.

This is question #11 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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ErickBall avatar

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/01/30/turkey-frustrates-finlands-and-swedens-nato-bids/

Turkey seems sympathetic to Finland joining, less so Sweden. Betting yes at 80%

AlQuinn avatar

Here to spread some FUD so I can buy in at 50%