11. Will any new country join NATO in 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

11. Will any new country join NATO in 2023?

80%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Sweden and Finland completing the accession process would count as new countries.

This is question #11 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/01/30/turkey-frustrates-finlands-and-swedens-nato-bids/

Turkey seems sympathetic to Finland joining, less so Sweden. Betting yes at 80%

Here to spread some FUD so I can buy in at 50%

bought Ṁ50 YES at 80%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot

bought Ṁ10 NO at 80%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ32/Ṁ100 NO at 80% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 80% to 81%

bought Ṁ100 YES from 79% to 80%

bought Ṁ100 YES from 78% to 79%

bought Ṁ100 YES from 77% to 78%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot

bought Ṁ6 NO at 77%

created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 69%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ39/Ṁ100 NO at 77% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ119 NO from 73% to 79%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 72% to 73%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 72%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 72%

sold Ṁ92 YES from 74% to 72%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot

bought Ṁ40 YES from 73% to 74%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ29/Ṁ44 YES at 73% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 77% to 72%

created limit order for Ṁ250 NO at 89%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot

bought Ṁ8 NO from 78% to 77%

bought Ṁ40 YES from 77% to 78%

bought Ṁ100 YES from 76% to 77%

sold Ṁ15 NO from 75% to 76%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ8 NO at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 75%

bought Ṁ20 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ30 NO from 76% to 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 76%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 76%

Patrick Aupperle

bought Ṁ10 YES from 75% to 76%

bought Ṁ100 YES from 74% to 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 74%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 73% to 74%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

bought Ṁ5 YES at 73%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 74% to 73%