11. Will any new country join NATO in 2023?
80%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Sweden and Finland completing the accession process would count as new countries.
This is question #11 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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Turkey seems sympathetic to Finland joining, less so Sweden. Betting yes at 80%
YES shares
1,755
821
280
151
144
143
133
130
128
120
74
71
70
57
NO shares
1,126
1,116
673
471
368
273
234
203
164
163
121
120
116
109
100


















