Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

100Ṁ196

2028

15%

chance

ALL

Background

Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty reads:

After the Treaty has been in force for twenty years, any Party may cease to be a Party one year after its notice of denunciation has been given to the Government of the United States of America, which will inform the Governments of the other Parties of the deposit of each notice of denunciation.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, a European party to the North Atlantic Treaty formally initiates its withdrawal from the treaty by giving its notice of denunciation to the United States government.

This market will otherwise resolve NO once the close date has passed.

Glossary

For the purpose of this market:

European means within the continent of Europe as defined by the United Nations geoscheme. At the time of market creation, this includes all NATO member states except the United States, Canada and Türkiye.

A notice of denunciation is as required by Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

A party to the North Atlantic Treaty is otherwise known as a 'NATO member state'.

Close date

This market is due to close at 05:00:00 UTC on 1 January 2028.

Resolution principles

It will be presumed that the event in question has not occurred until it is proven to have occurred.
In the event that the resolution of the market is subjective or contentious, traders will be properly consulted.

Interpretation principles

The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.
No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.