NATO currently consists of 32 members (listed alphabetically):

1. Albania

2. Belgium

3. Bulgaria

4. Canada

5. Croatia

6. Czech

7. Denmark

8. Estonia

9. Finland

10. France

11. Germany

12. Greece

13. Hungary

14. Iceland

15. Italy

16. Latvia

17. Lithuania

18. Luxembourg

19. Montenegro

20. Netherlands

21. North Macedonia

22. Norway

23. Poland

24. Portugal

25. Romania

26. Slovakia

27. Slovenia

28. Spain

29. Sweden

30. Turkey

31. United Kingdom

32. United States

This prediction market is about the next change to the list of members.

This market will resolve as YES if the next change to the list results in an increase in the number of members (i.e., one or more countries join NATO).

This market will resolve as NO if the next change to the list results in a decrease in the number of members (i.e., one or more countries leave NATO).

Author betting rules

The author of this question can place bets on it.

Resolving rules

This question will be resolved shortly after a change in membership occurs.

Currently, the closing date is set for the year 2100. If no change in membership occurs by that year, the closing date shoudl be updated to a more distant future date.

There should be no early resolution. The market will only be resolved after the official change takes effect and the membership list is updated.

Some corner cases: if NATO is disbanded and no longer exists, this market will be resolved as NO.