Which AI lab is the most underrated of 2024?
💎
Premium
53
Ṁ37k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
YES
Microsoft
Resolved
NO
OpenAI
Resolved
NO
xAI
Resolved
NO
Google DeepMind
Resolved
NO
Anthropic
Resolved
NO
Mistral
Resolved
NO
Alibaba
Resolved
NO
Cohere
Resolved
NO
Qwen
Resolved
NO
NexusFlow
Resolved
NO
01 AI
Resolved
NO
Meta
Resolved
NO
Nvidia
Resolved
NO
DeepSeek AI
Resolved
NO
Allen AI
Resolved
NO
Databricks
Resolved
NO
Apple

Underrated as defined by:

To determine the most underrated AI lab of 2024, evaluate labs with strong research and innovation, including high performance models, but limited X/Twitter chatter, media coverage, or industry recognition by analyzing their contributions, funding, and expert opinions. Focus on those achieving significant results with less attention.

For example: Mistral Large 2 is 1/4 the size of Meta Llama 3.1 405b, with similar performance, but nearly no press or X/Twitter coverage, and when covered, is often mentioned as being superior to Llama 3.1

Market resolution:

Market will resolve based on your votes (aka yes/no orders). The top 1 resolves to YES.

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bought Ṁ4,507 YES

Resolves Microsoft! Microsoft is sooooo underrated guys

Comment hidden

@0xSMW you misresolved the market. what's going on?

@mods please re-resolve

@0xSMW can you clarify your rationale for resolving 34% Microsoft, 33% DeepSeek AI, and 33% Allen AI? The criteria explicitly say, "The top 1 resolves to YES," and you seem to have clarified this multiple times in the comments. Microsoft was in the lead at market close.

resolved

@Bayesian dang we got rugged, guess this is a lesson not to invest in these kinds of markets smh

To identify the most underrated AI lab of 2024, several candidates stand out based on their innovative contributions and relatively low media visibility. Here are some notable mentions:

  • Mistral: Known for its Mistral Large 2 model, which is significantly smaller than Meta's Llama 3.1 yet offers comparable performance. Despite its capabilities, Mistral has received minimal press coverage, making it a strong contender for being underrated.

  • DeepSeek AI: This lab focuses on advanced AI research but lacks the media attention that larger players receive. Its innovative approaches in AI development have not been widely recognized, which positions it as an underrated entity in the field.

  • Sakana AI: Founded by a co-inventor of the transformer architecture, Sakana AI is working on new AI architectures that aim to improve efficiency and scalability. Despite its promising innovations, it has not garnered significant media attention, which could classify it as underrated.

  • Liquid Neural Networks (LNNs): Developed at MIT, LNNs offer a novel approach to AI that adapts dynamically to data, enhancing efficiency. This innovative technology has the potential to reshape AI applications but remains under the radar in terms of public recognition.

These labs exemplify strong research and innovation while lacking the widespread recognition enjoyed by larger organizations like OpenAI or Google DeepMind.

bought Ṁ50 NO

These odds add up to way more than 100%, y'all can do better than this lol

bought Ṁ50 NO

I think either Alibaba or Qwen should be removed, as Qwen is the name of the model family developed by Alibaba.

bought Ṁ250 YES

Deepseek definitely fulfills this criteria, top 3 coding model overall, all models open source + the cheapest API on the market (cheaper than gpt 4o mini)

https://huggingface.co/spaces/bigcode/bigcodebench-leaderboard

https://aider.chat/docs/leaderboards/

@Phill definitely not underrated in the public tho

Market resolution:

Market will resolve based on your votes.

What does that mean, exactly?

It's a Keynesian beauty contest. Each option resolves to its percentage at closing time.

@0xSMW Could you confirm what coproduct said? how will you count the votes and do you resolve YES to the one with the most votes and NO to all others or some other scheme

The top 1 will resolve to YES.

Yeah but how do you determine which one is the top 1

Are the votes from percentage odds, yes shareholder number, or separate poll?

determined via yes/no orders

As in just limit orders count? Is it number of users placing orders, number of total orders including multiple per user per option, amount of mana spent in orders, or number of shares in orders? Is it only fulfilled orders being counted?

I'm confused as to what is confusing?

if it resolved today, DeepSeek would resolve to yes, and all others no.

Is that based just on the percentage odds?

yes, it's very simple, it's based on the market itself – again, confused by the confusion?

Aren't you worried that resolving based only on odds will inventivise users with a lot of mana to non-epistemically pump up the odds of a random option right before market close i.e. whalebait?

no, I'm not. in fact, if it did, it would be the best thing that could happen to the market. it would draw more attention to the injustice and perceived truth.

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