Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?
Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?
15
360Ṁ5912028
94%
US
60%
China
19%
UAE
19%
UK
16%
Israel
10%
East/South-East Asia excl. China
10%
EU
As of November 2023, I'd say the top 3 are OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google (I'm sympathetic a case could be made for Meta).
Appreciate EU is not a country, but I think it's useful to track in the aggregate anyway :) - feel free to add individual EU countries, or to ask if you can add other useful groupings (I might N/A groupings I don't consider that useful if things get out of hand).
For simplicity, I'll focus on the country of the lab or its parent organization (at the moment, that means I'd count Google as 100% US, rather than viewing Google DeepMind as a UK lab).
I'll look to exit the market in the months prior to resolving, to reduce COI.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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