Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?
9
102
แน€350
2028
92%
US
43%
China
29%
EU
21%
East/South-East Asia excl. China
19%
UK
9%
UAE

As of November 2023, I'd say the top 3 are OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google (I'm sympathetic a case could be made for Meta).

Appreciate EU is not a country, but I think it's useful to track in the aggregate anyway :) - feel free to add individual EU countries, or to ask if you can add other useful groupings (I might N/A groupings I don't consider that useful if things get out of hand).

For simplicity, I'll focus on the country of the lab or its parent organization (at the moment, that means I'd count Google as 100% US, rather than viewing Google DeepMind as a UK lab).

I'll look to exit the market in the months prior to resolving, to reduce COI.

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what about East Asia minus China? Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore?

@mariopasquato Go for it! Maybe 'East/Southeast Asia excl. China'?

@CalebW Added. Maybe itโ€™s worth stating explicitly that it excludes Hong Kong and Macau but it includes Taiwan. Also Singapore counts as south-east Asia.

What if EU stop to exist?

@HanchiSun I wouldn't resolve to EU in that case :)

@CalebW Sorry, just realized that could be ambiguous - EU would resolve NO in that case