Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Which AI lab will participate in the IMO 2026?
35
Ṁ1kṀ8.1k
Aug 15
52%
OpenAI
52%
Google
51%
xAI
71%
Meta
33%
Mistral
69%
DeepSeek
65%
Harmonic (Aristotle)

Participates: publicly known to have participated or shares results with the public

  • Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Self-reported scores from labs (without official IMO certification) can count, especially for major/frontier labs

    • For smaller or less-known labs, a higher bar of evidence is required before believing claimed scores

    • If resolution is ambiguous, an uninvolved moderator panel may be used instead of creator judgment

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Does participation require scores being officially certified by IMO or can the companies run the model internally and then claim a certain score? @Bayesian

@DottedCalculator the intent is to count real cases and not count fake cases. The big companies are unlikely to make it up so internally and claiming a certain score seems fine, if it’s a very niche non frontier lab I would be more suspicious and my bar for believing them woukd be higher. Id prefer not relying on my judgement but i want to count real successes even if they arent done through a preferred channel. May need to have a uninvolved mod panel resolve instead if ambiguous.

@Bayesian Would Anthropic resolve yes now?

@DottedCalculator yes i’ll count it

do we know the source for google being so high?

bought Ṁ10 NO

they did it last year, they’re competitors with OpenAI who are certainly doing it, they have no reason not to compete