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MANIFOLD
If there is a second election in Israel, will the Arab parties do better or worse?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ30
Dec 31
56%
Government forms without a second election
8%
Second election: Arab parties get 19 or more seats
36%
Second election: Arab parties get fewer than 19 seats

The recent Knesset election in Israel resulted in no coalition achieving a majority of seats. Will a government manage to form or will there be a second election? If there is another election, will the Arab parties manage to repeat their impressive performance in the first election?

If a Prime Minister is sworn in, this market resolves to "Government forms without a second election" even if that government only lasts a very short amount of time and another election ends up happening.

I think the current figure of 19 seats for the Arab parties is still provisional as a few votes are still to be counted. In the unlikely event this changes, this market resolves according to the "19 or more/fewer than 19 seats" criteria, not the actual number of seats.

By "Arab parties" I mean Joint List and United Arab List (Ra'am). If the party groupings change between the first and second elections, I will use my judgement about what counts, informed by how the parties are described in mainstream media and wikipedia.

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