https://twitter.com/kosenjuu/status/1784952955294421215

Resolves YES if "gpt2-chatbot" is confirmed to be GPT-4.5/GPT-5/OpenAI's next big model. 

(click onto the "Direct Chat" tab, then select "gpt2-chatbot" as the model).

GPT-4 speculation

🤖 AI

GPT-5 Speculation

🤖 OpenAI

🖥️ Technology

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

ChatGPT

A model called "gpt2-chatbot" is now available at 

 and is reportedly at a SOTA quality level. There is speculation that it might be a shadow drop of a new OpenAI model to test its performance without biases.

 nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.

Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

Sam Altman

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

YouTube

Entertainment

Hardware

Rabbit R1

It is close to GPT-2 (e.g., the same architecture but with different instruction tuning)

'-2':6 'architectur':10 'close':3 'differ':13 'e.g':7 'gpt':5 'instruct':14 'tune':15

It uses a different architecture from the current paradigm (e.g., MoD, non-transformer, not next-token prediction)

'architectur':5 'current':8 'differ':4 'e.g':10 'mod':11 'next':17 'next-token':16 'non':13 'non-transform':12 'paradigm':9 'predict':19 'token':18 'transform':14 'use':2

Its full form has modalities other than text and vision input. (e.g., audio input, vision output, etc.)

'audio':13 'e.g':12 'etc':17 'form':3 'full':2 'input':11,14 'modal':5 'output':16 'text':8 'vision':10,15

I reserve the rights to NA any added options. 

Boston Red Sox beat Atlanta Braves - 12pm

'12pm':7 'atlanta':5 'beat':4 'boston':1 'brave':6 'red':2 'sox':3

St. Louis Cardinals beat Houston Astros - 12pm

'12pm':7 'astro':6 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'houston':5 'loui':2 'st':1

Tampa Bay Rays beat Philadelphia Phillies - 12pm

'12pm':7 'bay':2 'beat':4 'philadelphia':5 'philli':6 'ray':3 'tampa':1

Chicago White Sox beat Milwaukee Brewers - 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':4 'brewer':6 'chicago':1 'milwauke':5 'sox':3 'white':2

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - 2pm

'2pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'oakland':1

Texas Rangers beat Arizona Diamondbacks 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':4 'beat':3 'diamondback':5 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Colorado Rockies beat Kansas City Royals 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'citi':5 'colorado':1 'kansa':4 'rocki':2 'royal':6

Seattle Mariners beat Los Angeles Angels 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':5,6 'beat':3 'los':4 'marin':2 'seattl':1

Detroit Tigers beat Toronto Blue Jays 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'blue':5 'detroit':1 'jay':6 'tiger':2 'toronto':4

New York Mets beat Washington Nationals 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':4 'met':3 'nation':6 'new':1 'washington':5 'york':2

New York Yankees beat Detroit Tigers - 5:30pm

'30pm':8 '5':7 'beat':4 'detroit':5 'new':1 'tiger':6 'yanke':3 'york':2

'7pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cincinnati':1 'cub':5 'red':2

San Francisco Giants beat Los Angeles Dodgers 8pm

'8pm':8 'angel':6 'beat':4 'dodger':7 'francisco':2 'giant':3 'los':5 'san':1

Atlanta Braves beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'beat':3 'brave':2 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

Philadelphia Phillies beat Houston Astros - 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':5 'beat':3 'houston':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Minnesota Twins - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'minnesota':4 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1 'twin':5

Toronto Blue Jays beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'blue':2 'jay':3 'new':5 'toronto':1 'yanke':7 'york':6

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'cub':2 'marin':5 'seattl':4

Cleveland Guardians beat Chicago White Sox - 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cleveland':1 'guardian':2 'sox':6 'white':5

Texas Rangers beat Kansas City Royals 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'ranger':2 'royal':6 'texa':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Chicago Cubs - 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'diamondback':2

Los Angeles Angels beat Colorado Rockies - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'colorado':5 'los':1 'rocki':6

Milwaukee Brewers beat Oakland Athletics - 2pm

'2pm':6 'athlet':5 'beat':3 'brewer':2 'milwauke':1 'oakland':4

Baltimore Orioles beat Detroit Tigers - 5pm

'5pm':6 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'detroit':4 'oriol':2 'tiger':5

Washington Nationals beat St. Louis Cardinals - 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'cardin':6 'loui':5 'nation':2 'st':4 'washington':1

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'marlin':2 'met':6 'miami':1 'new':4 'york':5

Los Angeles Dodgers beat Cincinnati Reds - 7pm

'7pm':7 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cincinnati':5 'dodger':3 'los':1 'red':6

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - 7pm

'7pm':8 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Oakland Athletics beat Milwaukee Brewers - 8pm

'8pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'milwauke':4 'oakland':1

Houston Astros beat Washington Nationals - 11am

'11am':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'nation':5 'washington':4

Atlanta Braves beat Baltimore Orioles - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'baltimor':4 'beat':3 'brave':2 'oriol':5

Detroit Tigers beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'detroit':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4 'tiger':2

Minnesota Twins beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'minnesota':1 'new':4 'twin':2 'yanke':6 'york':5

Philadelphia Phillies beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'blue':5 'jay':6 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'toronto':4

St. Louis Cardinals beat New York Mets - 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'loui':2 'met':7 'new':5 'st':1 'york':6

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'colorado':4 'cub':2 'rocki':5

Cleveland Guardians beat Los Angeles Angels - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':5,6 'beat':3 'cleveland':1 'guardian':2 'los':4

Kansas City Royals beat Arizona Diamondbacks - 2pm

'2pm':7 'arizona':5 'beat':4 'citi':2 'diamondback':6 'kansa':1 'royal':3

Los Angeles beat Dodgers Texas Rangers - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':2 'beat':3 'dodger':4 'los':1 'ranger':6 'texa':5

San Francisco beat Giants Oakland Athletics - 2pm

'2pm':7 'athlet':6 'beat':3 'francisco':2 'giant':4 'oakland':5 'san':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Cincinnati Reds - 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'cincinnati':4 'diamondback':2 'red':5

Milwaukee Brewers beat Seattle Mariners - 2pm

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'brewer':2 'marin':5 'milwauke':1 'seattl':4

San Diego Padres beat Chicago White Sox - 2pm

'2pm':8 'beat':4 'chicago':5 'diego':2 'padr':3 'san':1 'sox':7 'white':6

Oakland Athletics beat Milwaukee Brewers - 3pm

'3pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'milwauke':4 'oakland':1

'4pm':8 'bay':2 'beat':4 'boston':5 'ray':3 'red':6 'sox':7 'tampa':1

Washington Nationals beat Miami Marlins - 5pm

'5pm':6 'beat':3 'marlin':5 'miami':4 'nation':2 'washington':1

Baltimore Orioles beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'blue':5 'jay':6 'oriol':2 'toronto':4

Boston Red Sox beat  Tampa Bay Rays - 12pm

'12pm':8 'bay':6 'beat':4 'boston':1 'ray':7 'red':2 'sox':3 'tampa':5

'12pm':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'marlin':5 'miami':4

Minnesota Twins beat Washington Nationals - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'minnesota':1 'nation':5 'twin':2 'washington':4

New York Yankees beat Atlanta Braves - 12pm

'12pm':7 'atlanta':5 'beat':4 'brave':6 'new':1 'yanke':3 'york':2

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Philadelphia Phillies - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'philadelphia':4 'philli':5 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1

Toronto Blue Jays beat Baltimore Orioles (different game) - 12:07pm

'07pm':10 '12':9 'baltimor':5 'beat':4 'blue':2 'differ':7 'game':8 'jay':3 'oriol':6 'toronto':1

Miami Marlins beat St. Louis Cardinals - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'cardin':6 'loui':5 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'st':4

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'detroit':5 'met':3 'new':1 'tiger':6 'york':2

Cincinnati Reds beat Cleveland Guardians - 3pm

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'cincinnati':1 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'red':2

Los Angeles Dodgers beat Arizona Diamondbacks - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':2 'arizona':5 'beat':4 'diamondback':6 'dodger':3 'los':1

Oakland Athletics beat Kansas City Royals - 3pm

'3pm':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'oakland':1 'royal':6

San Francisco Giants beat Chicago White Sox - 3pm

'3pm':8 'beat':4 'chicago':5 'francisco':2 'giant':3 'san':1 'sox':7 'white':6

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Colorado Rockies beat Milwaukee Brewers - 3pm

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'colorado':1 'milwauke':4 'rocki':2

Los Angeles Angels beat San Diego Padres - 3pm

'3pm':8 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'diego':6 'los':1 'padr':7 'san':5

Atlanta Braves beat Minnesota Twins - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'beat':3 'brave':2 'minnesota':4 'twin':5

Boston Red Sox beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'boston':1 'pirat':6 'pittsburgh':5 'red':2 'sox':3

Houston Astros beat Detroit Tigers - 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'detroit':4 'houston':1 'tiger':5

New York Yankees beat Baltimore Orioles - 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':5 'beat':4 'new':1 'oriol':6 'yanke':3 'york':2

Philadelphia Phillies beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'new':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'yanke':6 'york':5

St. Louis Cardinals beat Washington Nationals - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'loui':2 'nation':6 'st':1 'washington':5

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':8 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

Chicago White Sox beat Colorado Rockies - 3pm

'3pm':7 'beat':4 'chicago':1 'colorado':5 'rocki':6 'sox':3 'white':2

Cleveland Guardians beat Los Angeles Dodgers - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':5 'beat':3 'cleveland':1 'dodger':6 'guardian':2 'los':4

Kansas City Royals beat San Francisco Giants - 3pm

'3pm':8 'beat':4 'citi':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'kansa':1 'royal':3 'san':5

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Oakland Athletics - 3pm

'3pm':6 'arizona':1 'athlet':5 'beat':3 'diamondback':2 'oakland':4

Los Angeles Angels beat Texas Rangers - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'los':1 'ranger':6 'texa':5

Seattle Mariners beat San Diego Padres - 3pm

'3pm':7 'beat':3 'diego':5 'marin':2 'padr':6 'san':4 'seattl':1

'5pm':7 'beat':4 'marlin':6 'met':3 'miami':5 'new':1 'york':2

Baltimore Orioles beat Tampa Bay Rays 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':1 'bay':5 'beat':3 'oriol':2 'ray':6 'tampa':4

Boston Red Sox beat St. Louis Cardinals 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'boston':1 'cardin':7 'loui':6 'red':2 'sox':3 'st':5

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'detroit':1 'minnesota':4 'tiger':2 'twin':5

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Atlanta Braves 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':4 'beat':3 'brave':5 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1

Toronto Blue Jays beat New York Yankees 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':5 'beat':3 'houston':4 'marlin':2 'miami':1

Los Angeles Dodgers beat San Francisco Giants 3pm

'3pm':8 'angel':2 'beat':4 'dodger':3 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'los':1 'san':5

Oakland Athletics beat Seattle Mariners 3pm

'3pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'marin':5 'oakland':1 'seattl':4

Texas Rangers beat Cleveland Guardians 3pm

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Colorado Rockies beat Kansas City Royals 3pm

'3pm':7 'beat':3 'citi':5 'colorado':1 'kansa':4 'rocki':2 'royal':6

San Diego Padres beat Arizona Diamondbacks 3pm

'3pm':7 'arizona':5 'beat':4 'diamondback':6 'diego':2 'padr':3 'san':1

Washington Nationals beat New York Mets 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'met':6 'nation':2 'new':4 'washington':1 'york':5

'8pm':6 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'chicago':1 'cub':2 'milwauke':4

Cincinnati Reds beat Chicago White Sox 8pm

'8pm':7 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cincinnati':1 'red':2 'sox':6 'white':5