MANIFOLD

Will FTX clients retrieve 90% of their deposits by Nov 30, 2022?

Ṁ550Ṁ4.1k

resolved Nov 17

Resolved

YES

ALL

Market context

Crypto

FTX Insolvency Crisis

Improperly Resolved

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1,000

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🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ1,419
2		Ṁ1,040
3		Ṁ12

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Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%?

97% chance

What percent of the deposits will FTX US users be able to get back?

96% chance

What % of assets will FTX international clients get back?

98% chance

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

What percentage of their money will FTX customers get back, on average?

98% chance

What percentage of their money will FTX customers get back?

How many "cents on the dollar" will FTX international clients get back?

99% chance

What percentage of their total claims will customers receive in the first installment issued by FTX International?

83% chance

Will any FTXFF grantee be legally compelled to return funds due to FTX's bankruptcy?

32% chance

Will FTX raise a down round before the end of 2026?

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predictedNO

I'll pay everyone back >=90% of their investment. Please leave a comment below and I'll tip you.

I'd like to thank everyone who bought NO on /lu/will-mm-clients-of-an-improperly-re for sponsoring these reimbursements.

predictedNO

@Yev Bold move, hope it pays off for you.

predictedNO

@Yev Interesting! I lost $250 iirc.

Honestly I should care more about my profit metric than about money. Do tips count as profit? Are there any legal ways for me to get my profit metric back?

predictedNO

@Yev Thanks!

predictedNO

@KatjaGrace Thanks

predictedNO

@Yev Thanks! I lost $M135

@Gigacasting @o @SG @MichaelWheatley @npinsker @StevenK @LukeBrennan @DavidAtkinson @a @theservy @MarthaGrant @MorganHuang @egroj @yxn you're all eligible for a reimbursement

predictedNO

@Yev Oh cool, thanks.

predictedNO

@Yev Thanks! ironic that this happened on an ftx market

predictedNO

@Yev Unexpected. Thanks.

predictedNO

So how exactly is this resolved? @SirSalty

predictedNO

Lol, I lost 200 here.

predictedNO

Trying to pull an SBF? Unless there is some major news I missed, this looks like a misresolution.

predictedNO

+1. Also, top traders @hampon and @taylorpetty as well as market creator @yayawong have first activity at roughly the same time (2022-11-17 3:00), and held most of the "yes" positions.