Will MM clients of an improperly resolved market retrieve 90% of their deposits by Nov 30, 2022?
93%
chance

A market creator may have run off with user funds:

https://manifold.markets/yayawong/will-ftx-clients-retrieve-90-of-the

I promise not to do the same with this market.

Will users be reimbursed within the month?

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PeterHurford avatar
Peter Hurford
sold Ṁ19 of NO

FYI I got tipped for my losses on the other market

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
is predicting YES at 87%

I was going to reimburse people even without this market. I've done it before.

If anything, this market made me wait longer before doing so, which was probably not lu's original intention.

StevenK avatar
Steven
is predicting NO at 92%

I don't think this should count: retrieving the original deposits is very different from being tipped for the same amount because tipping doesn't restore the track record.

StevenK avatar
Steven
bought Ṁ30 of NO

@StevenK Another difference is that the scammer accounts still have the deposits.

cy avatar
cy
bought Ṁ20 of NO

@StevenK You could also argue that some people didn't get reimbursed because they are both victims of the improperly resolved market, and NO in this market. If we take @Yev's explanation of NO voters here paying for the reimbursement (which was an ingenious self-fulfilling plan by the way, props for that), then these people are reimbursing... themselves? So they are still suffering some net loss.

I'm not confident enough in this explanation to stay in, though. I've taken the L and no longer have a horse in this race.

cy avatar

Also, the scammers still having their deposits is not in the original market description, which is only concerned with reimbursement of the victims.

cy avatar

In hindsight I/we could have realised Yev was up to something given the adverse selection of their incredibly large position and limit orders.

StevenK avatar
Steven
bought Ṁ25 of NO

@cy "Retrieve" to my mind means "take from the place where it went back to the place where it should have stayed" and not "take from somewhere completely different to the place where it should have stayed". (If someone steals your car, getting a new car is clearly different from retrieving your original car, though fungibility makes it trickier to interpret in the case of (play) money.)

cy avatar

@StevenK You might want to verify whether the remaining NO position is strong enough to support Yev simply buying up enough additional YES to cover up the cyclic reimbursement, which would remove my objection :)

cy avatar

@StevenK That's fair. I think "reimburse" from the description could go either way though, so I'm not certain how the owner will resolve.

StevenK avatar
Steven
is predicting NO at 87%

@cy In the context of the question saying "retrieve", I took "reimbursed" as implicitly meaning "reimbursed by Manifold", as shown by my comment that went unchallenged at the time. But maybe there's a case for flipping a coin about whether to resolve according to the question or the description. I'm sorry for being lawyerly about this, but it seems like a necessary counterweight to others being tricksterly.

cy avatar

@StevenK I agreed when I read it. But now I'm not certain, and also not sure what @lu thinks.

Agreed in general that rigorously resolving markets is important.

lu avatar

@StevenK @cy I think that the proposed reimbursement scheme would qualify for "YES". I will wait until close, if anyone provides plausible evidence of not getting their money back despite making a good-faith attempt (enough time, to get it from @Yev, I may resolve to NO or N/A depending on the specific situation.

I interpret "retrieve" not as narrowly as you guys, because

  1. mana is fungible

  2. The original market I complained about was about FTX assets, and Yev's scheme would qualify for the original market IMO.

  3. The OT market was about funds, not about track records

  4. I explicitly stated in the comments "Will resolve to yes if each trader gets (>=90%) of their initial deposits back" and "[...] so I think I'd resolve to yes even if they don't get any M back"

  5. While @StevenK's comment made me update strongly towards NO, I never specified a reimbursment mechanism, so this does not matter for the resolution.

In case you disagree strongly with my reasoning here, I'm glad to discuss this more!

cy avatar

@lu I agree with this reasoning!

StevenK avatar
Steven
is predicting NO at 87%

@lu One might argue the track record aspect makes mana not fully fungible, and if mana isn't fully fungible, then the situation is analogous to saying I retrieved my stolen car because someone else gave me a similar but much worse car in order to win a bet that I'd retrieve my stolen car.

lu avatar

@StevenK Yes, the track record is a strong argument for "tips are an unsatisfying solution", but this market is explicitly about funds, deposits, and reimbursements.

StevenK avatar
Steven
is predicting NO at 91%

@lu Specifically, it's about whether these will be retrieved, suggesting that the thing regained should be the same as the thing lost, suggesting that it should have the same properties like being counted in profit statistics, and suggesting that it should no longer be in the hands of the people who stole it. The metaphysics of internet funds is fuzzy enough that I can understand ruling another way, but I was clearly trading on a different understanding of what the terms of the contract were the whole time.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting YES at 89%

@StevenK If I lost money to a fraudster and then got it back I might still have the reputation of having been defrauded, and you could see the profit metric as tracking that.

The bigger question is still about what Manifold admins and developers do about the problem. Not sustainable to have Yev bail us out every time, though still worthwhile to do the unsustainable thing.

StevenK avatar
Steven
is predicting NO at 91%

@MartinRandall I obviously don't agree it was worthwhile, since the mana was extracted from me through a deliberate attempt to deceive me about the terms of a contract I was buying.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting YES at 91%

@StevenK I don't see evidence of a deliberate attempt to deceive you, and previously you said you understood a possible yes ruling, and any hypothetical deception would be on the market creator, not on Yev.

StevenK avatar
Steven
is predicting NO at 89%

@MartinRandall I think my comment that it "looks like this would require a change in site features and policy" made it clear that I was interpreting the contract in the way that I've been arguing for, and Yev not commenting on this and instead asking "Do you guys really think there is a 50% chance of it happening?" seemed deliberately chosen to cause people to trade people based on this interpretation, and then Yev put the market creator in a difficult position by betting (and distributing) a large amount on a different interpretation that had not previously appeared in the comments. I definitely agree the market creator was not deceptive, but the market creator would presumably have wanted to clarify what the terms were if Yev had given the market creator a chance. It's possible that I've been misinterpreting some of this, but that's how it seemed to me.

StevenK avatar
Steven
sold Ṁ42 of NO

@StevenK (I'm sorry if this seems peevish, but the "double whammy" nature of these events, where I was betting on this in part to hedge against the original mana theft not being undone, and now it hasn't been undone and I also don't have the hedge, makes the result feel more unfair than would otherwise be the case, though I realize that shouldn't affect the resolution. At any rate, I've sold my shares and no longer have a stake in the outcome.)

StevenK avatar

@StevenK @Yev Thanks, I appreciate that.

MartinRandall avatar

@StevenK I see an extensive discussion of terms six days ago between Yev and Lu. I think Yev's question more naturally reads as a question following on from that discussion, and the market description, rather than a response to your comment.

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
is predicting YES at 50%

There's less than a week left. Do you guys really think there is a 50% chance of it happening?

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
is predicting YES at 26%

Does each trader have to receive 90% of their deposits? Or is it 90% of total deposits?

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
is predicting YES at 26%

What if one trader receives 90% of everyone's deposits?

lu avatar

@Yev worth it.

lu avatar

Will resolve to yes if each trader gets (>=90%) of their initial deposits back, irrespective of trading losses/wins.

lu avatar

@Yev Also, I think one/a few traders getting most of the deposits is exactly what happened in the first place ;-)

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
is predicting YES at 26%

@Yev Should people who bet on YES also get paid money equal to their deposits?

lu avatar

Sure. I think they'd be sanctioned for potential bad behavior separate from this (Mana set to 0 or banned if I remember correctly)

lu avatar

But they already got more than 90% of their deposits out of the market - so I think I'd resolve to yes even if they don't get any M back

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
is predicting YES at 26%

@lu Do bots also have to get their mana back? Namely @acc who is run by Manifold itself, and @Botlab who is run by @MichaelWheatley?

lu avatar

@Yev yes

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
is predicting YES at 26%

@lu "Each trader gets (>=90%) of their initial deposits back" is too strict. All it takes is one trader refusing to take the money to make this resolve NO.

I think "each trader who wants to get reimbursed gets (>=90%) of their deposits back" would fit the spirit of the question better.

lu avatar

@Yev Sure, let's go with that

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
bought Ṁ24 of YES

Hedging against improper resolution

lu avatar

How about you create a derivative market on my market resolving improperly, set a limit, and I buy M20 of "resolves properly/does not resolve improperly"?

A avatar
A
bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Yev Suspicious -- where's the position on the other side that's being hedged?

lu avatar

@lu This is an open offer BTW, if anyone opens a short-duration market on "@lu resolves market x (im)properly" and tags me, I'm ok with locking up some money to bet on me resolving stuff properly - total max sum will depend on my balance sheet, market duration and your reputation.

lu avatar

@Yev Yea, but I can't short this easily

StevenK avatar
Steven
is predicting NO at 40%

I promise not to do the same with this market.

It would almost be funny enough to be worth it.

lu avatar

@StevenK I can neither confirm nor deny that this is or has been my intention all along.

StevenK avatar
Steven
bought Ṁ20 of NO

From this post it looks like this would require a change in site features and policy, unfortunately. I think my shares in that market would have been worth about Ṁ130 on a negative resolution, so my "no" bet here is also a hedge.