This description was generated by AI.

Resolution criteria

The US announced on March 13 that military installations on Kharg Island were bombed, with around 90 military targets struck while oil infrastructure on the island was left intact. This market resolves YES if the US attempts to seize Kharg Island or carries out a major strike on its oil infrastructure before April 15, 2026.

Resolution will be based on:

• Official statements from the US Department of Defense or White House

• Credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, etc.)

• Satellite imagery or verified video evidence of strikes on oil facilities

A "major strike" is defined as damage to critical oil export infrastructure including storage tanks, loading terminals, or pipelines that materially disrupts export capacity. Military-only strikes do not count. The market resolves NO if no such action occurs by April 15, 2026.

Background

Kharg Island's terminal handled about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports before the current conflict. Iran earned $53 billion in net oil export revenues in 2025, roughly 11 percent of its annual GDP. Following the start of the 2026 Iran war on February 28, satellite imagery revealed that Iran had begun reducing oil storage there since early February, with only nine of the oil tanks estimated to be full by March 7, compared to 27 in mid-January.

In March it was reported that Israel was considering bombing the island, while the US was favouring seizing it. Trump warned the United States could attack crude facilities on the island if Iran continues attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Considerations

If Kharg were attacked and its energy infrastructure destroyed, that would take 90% of Iran's crude exports offline and invite massive Iranian retaliation on the energy infrastructure of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf, potentially affecting global oil markets and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If Kharg's oil facilities were attacked, it could take Iran months, if not more than a year, to rebuild, as Iran is facing western sanctions and cannot secure enough funds, technology and expertise.