This market resolves YES if, before June 1, 2026, armed forces of the United States or Israel establish physical military control on Kharg Island (Iran) for at least 24 hours.

Examples that qualify:

• Deployment of ground forces controlling part of the island

• Amphibious landing or airborne assault that results in temporary control

Examples that do NOT qualify:

• Airstrikes, missile strikes, or drone attacks without ground control

• Naval blockade without landing forces

• Cyberattacks or sabotage without overt military occupation

Control may be temporary and does not need to be recognized internationally.

Resolution will rely on reporting from major news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.).