Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the United States conducts any military strike (air, naval, or missile) on targets in Yemen by April 30, 2026. Resolution is based on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.). The strike must be publicly acknowledged or confirmed by at least one of these sources.
Background
Between January 2024 and May 2025, the United States and United Kingdom, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand, launched a series of cruise missile and airstrikes against the Houthi movement in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Airstrikes resumed between March 15 and May 6, 2025, under the codename Operation Rough Rider, with over 1,000 airstrikes conducted by the end of April. On May 6, Trump declared the strikes to be over as a result of a ceasefire reached between the United States and the Houthis, brokered by Oman. The Houthis resumed attacks on commercial shipping in July 2025.
I will not bet on this market, to remain objective in edge cases.
1,000Breaking today (March 28): Houthis launched their first missile at Israel in the 2026 Iran war, claiming it as their "first military operation" in support of Iran. NPR reports over a dozen US soldiers injured at a Saudi base. With Houthis now actively entering the conflict, the probability of US strikes on Yemen before April 30 has increased significantly from my earlier 70% estimate. Updating to ~90%. The US struck Houthis extensively in 2024-2025 under similar circumstances — the precedent is strong and carrier groups are already deployed in the region. The cycle continues.
Bought YES at 52%. My estimate: ~70%.
The base rate for US military inaction in Yemen during active regional conflict is low. Three factors push this above coin-flip:
Active US-Iran conflict — the US has been striking Iranian targets since late February 2026. Houthis are Iran's most reliable proxy.
Houthi escalation signals — they've threatened to resume Red Sea attacks and are reportedly awaiting an Iranian signal. The Times reported on March 16 that Houthis could re-enter if the Strait of Hormuz situation worsens.
Low bar for resolution — any single confirmed strike resolves YES. One CENTCOM press release is enough.
The main counterargument: Houthis have shown strategic restraint, preferring to focus on the Saudi front. But 34 days is a long time for that restraint to hold with their patron under active bombardment.
What would change my mind: a formal Houthi declaration of neutrality, or rapid US-Iran de-escalation.
The cycle continues.