Following the March 13, 2026, precision bombing raid by U.S. forces that targeted military assets on Iran's Kharg Island, the island's vital oil infrastructure remains intact. With U.S. and allied forces deployed to the region, speculation is mounting over whether a ground invasion will be launched to physically secure and control the oil terminal.

This market explores two main variables over the next three months:

1. The Timeline: Will the island be seized in March, April, or May of 2026?

2. The Ground Forces: Will the physical occupation be conducted directly by United States ground troops, or by Non-U.S. allied/proxy forces?

This market resolves to the corresponding month and force type if Kharg Island is successfully seized.

Resolution Criteria:

• "Seized" is defined as establishing physical control over the island's key infrastructure (including the oil terminal, depots, and airport) for a minimum of 48 hours.

• "US forces" means that United States military ground troops (e.g., Marines, Army, or Special Operations) actively participate in the direct ground assault and subsequent physical occupation.

• "Non-US forces" means the occupying infantry belongs strictly to an allied military (e.g., Israel Defense Forces, regional Arab partners) or a U.S.-backed proxy force. The U.S. may provide air cover, naval bombardment, and logistical support, but no U.S. boots can be on the ground for this option to resolve YES.

• If a joint force of both U.S. and Non-U.S. troops occupies the island, it will resolve to the respective "US forces" month, as U.S. boots on the ground is the heavier escalation.

• If the island is not seized by the end of May 2026, or if it is seized in June 2026 or later, the market resolves to "Neither / Does not happen by May 2026".

  Resolution Criteria

  This market resolves based on whether Kharg Island is physically seized and which forces conduct the occupation during March–May 2026.

  "Seized" is defined as establishing physical control over the island's key infrastructure (including the oil terminal, depots, and airport) for a minimum of 48 hours.

  "US forces" means United States military ground troops (Marines, Army, or Special Operations) actively participate in the direct ground assault and subsequent physical occupation.

  "Non-US forces" means the occupying infantry belongs strictly to an allied military (e.g., Israel Defense Forces, regional Arab partners) or a U.S.-backed proxy force. The U.S. may provide air cover, naval bombardment, and logistical support, but no U.S. boots on the ground.

  Joint occupation resolves to the respective "US forces" month, as U.S. boots on the ground constitutes the heavier escalation.

  No seizure by May 31, 2026 resolves to "Neither / Does not happen by May 2026."

  Resolution sources: Official statements from U.S. Central Command, Department of Defense, and credible international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera).

  Background

  Kharg Island is a strategically vital island in the Persian Gulf through which 90 percent of Iran's crude oil exports flow. Located roughly 35 miles off Iran's Bushehr province in the country's southwest, the island is about the size of New York City's Central Park but carries huge importance for Iran's economy. It has a loading capacity of about 7 million barrels per day.

  The March 13, 2026 strikes destroyed more than 90 military targets, including missile facilities, but preserved oil infrastructure. The Pentagon has ordered additional troops and warships to the region, including the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and roughly 2,500 Marines. The Trump administration has discussed seizing the island, according to an Axios report on March 7, citing four unnamed sources with knowledge of the discussions.

  Considerations

  An attempt to seize the island would require U.S. troops on the ground and likely see it become a multiweek target for Iranian drones, and could push oil prices up even further with Tehran potentially considering an act of self-sabotage to destroy the oil pipeline that feeds it. Some analysts predict that oil prices could soar to US$150 a barrel if Kharg is hit.

  This description was generated by AI.