Resolution will be based primarily on credible international media reporting but may also consider OSINT (e.g. ISW).

If there is material uncertainty or disagreement at the close of the market, a probability resolution instead of Yes/No is possible (although I would prefer to avoid that). The timezone used for resolution will be UTC.

I will aim to resolve this market within one week of the market closing, subject to confirmation of the outcome. As there is potential for edge cases or subjectivity, I will not bet on this market.

An invasion to control territory, a raid, or CSAR all would count – the criterion is, troops physically on the ground and/or use of crewed ground vehicles. Contractors or advisors of the US military would count, if they are in combat roles. Troops landing on a building would count, including artificial structures physically attached to the island such as piers or jetties. Troops in an amphibious vehicle would count, if the vehicle makes contact with the landmass of Qeshm island. Mangrove forest would count, if troops or an amphibious vehicle are physically in contact with landmass of Qeshm island.

US intelligence agents or assets do not count. Non-US troops do not count. Outlying islands, Hengam Island, and sandbars do not count – only Qeshm proper. Uncrewed drones, even ground drones, do not count. The landing must be deliberate, not accidental or emergency: pilots or sailors reaching Qeshm due to their craft being destroyed would not count.

For unanticipated scenarios, I would take into account evidence or arguments made by market participants and other users.