
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
17
Ṁ1kṀ5532035
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
17% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
89% chance
Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
63% chance
Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?
5% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
31% chance
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
96% chance
Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2030?
10% chance
Will a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 2030?
5% chance
[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
56% chance
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
59% chance