Will there be realistic AI generated video with dialogue by 2024? | Manifold Markets

Vincent Luczkow

closes Jan 1, 2024

Technical AI Timelines

Will there be realistic AI generated video with dialogue by 2024?

34%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Minimum video length of 2 minutes, and must maintain coherence. The visuals, dialogue, and sound must all be of "reasonable" quality: it does not need to be indistinguishable from human made video, but there shouldn't be significant artifacts.

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Is this from a prompt of like "A video of two people having a conversation", or something with more input data, such as the transcript of the dialogue and a starting picture of two people talking to each other?

Vincent Luczkow

@Nikola I will accept either of those.

Nikolabought Ṁ15 of YES

@vluzko https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jz78fSnBG0s In what ways does this not pass the test? Because of the video creator splicing the clips together?

Vincent Luczkow

@Nikola The splicing hurts it, but the main thing is that this is a question about being able to generate many kinds of video, not any video. Think DALL-E 2 but for video with sound (although I do not require the inputs to be purely text)

Nikolasold Ṁ8 of YES

@vluzko Two minutes is a really long time, and we don't even have a good DALL-E 1 equivalent for long video, let alone video + sound

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