Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?
Basic
34
1.7k
2028
43%
chance

Will resolve YES if there is a credible (as judged by me) report that a movie for which an Oscar has been awarded has a dialogue line that was written by an AI model rather than human writers.

Will resolve NO if no such report emerges.

I will not bet in this market.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Any Oscar counts? So if MI:Dead Reckoning pt 2 wins some technical Oscar, and they say that they had AI write the lines of the AI Entity, then we're good even tho it will have effectively no chance of winning any dialogue-relevant oscar?

@MattLashofSullivan Correct, the Oscar does not have to be related to the dialogue

How on earth would you know?

@lcar good point, I will add something about resolution to the description

@JakobBrunker Thanks! I can imagine two plausible scenarios, and one implausible one:
1. A movie has a highly memorable quote, or line, or passage of dialogue. The screenwriter publicly credits (partially?) an AI with either the inspiration/idea/concept or the specific phrasing used. E.g. An AI suggesting that the differences between McDonalds in Europe & the US as a good topic of conversation for two assassins en-route to a hit.
2. A screenwriter admits to extensive (?) general use of AI in the development of a script, with the AI playing the role of a co-writer or collaborator. Perhaps they just mention that an AI is an important part of their workflow without referencing a specific film.
3. For some reason, the producers of a film delegate the task of writing dialogue to an AI (e.g., in the event the original screenwriter dies with the script unfinished). The AI-written dialogue appears in the movie, unedited or lightly edited. Perhaps the AI is credited as a screenwriter.

How would you resolve for these cases? I'd say (2) is already happening to some extent, so it's a question of degree.

@lcar
1. At least one full sentence has to be written by AI without modification, and the evidence we have must mention that (though a report saying e.g. "This line was written by ChatGPT" would be sufficient evidence). The AI suggesting a topic is not sufficient.
2. The specific film has to be mentioned.
3. Almost certainly would resolve YES, unless we have some reason to believe that every single sentence was edited.

It is very likely that in at least one such scene, one character will be chatting with something of type ChatGPT...

@PatrikCihal To be clear that would only qualify for this market if the lines uttered in that scene are really written by an AI model, rather than put in the ChatGPT-type thing's mouth by the writers

Edit: Ah on re-reading your comment it sounds like that's what you mean, though

More related questions