big arbitrage opportunity!

https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up-2

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up? (2024 version)

67% chance. Same as this market but closes and resolves end of 2024 https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up "This market resolves YES if at close (end of **2024**) my subjective perception is that this was a good take (https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273) --e.g., AI-generated video really is that good--and NO if it seems like Eliezer was importantly wrong about something, e.g., AI-generated video still sucks, or still couldn't be the cause for serious doubt about whether some random moth footage was made with a camera or not."

@DanW The tweet: (similar to criteria of this market)
https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273

@DanW note that this market resolves 1 year prior to the linked market and requires consistency

Seriously what do people know that I don't? 3 months?

https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1650213239559421953?t=zarQeYTu1_Qxzn40UdNUJQ&s=19

Thoughts on this?

@Harry_ obviously not long enough

@Harry_ I wouldn't consider this close to realistic. I think there's still a lot of work to be done

@Harry_ These prompts are also total softballs, even if they did look realistic it would still be insufficient since it would constitute cherry-picking the easiest cases

In addition to softball prompts and lacking realism, I think people are taking these "panning" and "zooming" videos way too seriously. Having multiple shots, complex actions (e.g., a puppy playing with a kitten), etc. is just clearly so much harder than the cropping or zooming of an image.

@JacyAnthis We've had machine-generated panning and zooming that look a lot better than this for a while now, too.

Same goes for effects like fire, water splashes, glowing, etc. where there doesn't really need to be a whole lot of coordination of fine details over time.

https://twitter.com/heyBarsee/status/1650960731313958954?cxt=HHwW1MCzgbeCsuktAAAA

@RahulShah it says the tweet has been deleted

This convinced me AI video is coming Pepperoni Hug Spot - AI Made TV Commerical - YouTube

@TimothyCurrie That is definitely the most creepy thing I've seen this week 😆

More concretely - for me, this is definitely NEGATIVE evidence for this market. The video is terrible, and I'm sure each prompt resulted in just a couple seconds of video, and the creator had to stitch them together

@TimothyCurrie I seriously doubt that script was machine-generated. It has that same affectation as a bunch of fake "AI generated comedy" where it has the big picture correct but screws up a lot of little details, which is exactly the opposite of the mistakes that a text generator will make. GPT doesn't say things like "are you ready for best pizza of life" because those small-scale errors are the easiest to avoid. When GPT makes a mistake it's a larger-scale one, where fixing it would require looking at a much larger section of text; for example, when it repeats itself over the course of a few paragraphs.

This can be pretty easily verified by just going to ChatGPT, asking it for a pizza commercial script, and seeing that it looks nothing like this.

@Julian 100%, the text is undoubtedly human written to "sound" computer generated. But then again that's not really the point, the point is the rapidly-improving quality of the videos.

Clarification: if the model fails in a large majority of cases but succeeds in some subset of particularly easy cases (probably ones that don't have a whole lot of movement outside of the camera panning) this should still count as NO, correct? Since that would be equivalent to the "cherry-picking" you describe for DALL-E 2?

i.e. the model must succeed across a wide variety of prompts

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12346.pdf

Q1 of 2023 coming to a close and we had this today:

Hugging face:

https://huggingface.co/damo-vilab/modelscope-damo-text-to-video-synthesis/tree/main

## Example clips:
Star wars clip using text to video model:
https://twitter.com/victormustar/status/1637461621541949441

Is this a llama clip xD? https://twitter.com/justincmeans/status/1637517337426550785

Shark skiing across the desert! https://twitter.com/hanyingcl/status/1637424841950392321

Astronaut riding a horse, surfing spiderman: https://huggingface.co/spaces/damo-vilab/modelscope-text-to-video-synthesis

@firstuserhere It's hard to say what "realistic enough" means, but to me those are all pretty far from the bar still. There's a ton of blur and shifting motion that seems like it should be theoretically easy to fix (maybe an extra processing step?), but right now it's definitely not there.

@Gabrielle Oh yeah no way it's realistic enough but we're in march only :) Stable diffusion year's march felt quite similar to me