By the end of 2032, will GiveWell have retroactively reduced their estimates of the effectiveness of AMF between 2014 and 2019 by at least a factor of 2?
Mini
8
Ṁ145
2033
21%
chance

Resolves YES if the estimate for AMF's effectiveness for any year in the relevant range goes down, not all of them.

Effectiveness: cost to buy one QALY, or cost to save one life (if the former metric is no longer being computed).

Going by current estimates, not by estimate in 2015. If the estimate in 2015 of 2015-effectiveness was X, the current estimate for 2015-effectiveness is 2X, and in 2032 the estimate of 2015-effectiveness is X, market resolves YES.

If no changes are published / GiveWell says nothing one way or another, market resolves NO.

Market question/description will be open to changes for 1 month (until 2023-01-15) to incorporate any suggestions, after that I will only make clarifications.

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Does GiveWell estimate cost to buy one QALY anywhere? A quick look at the site gives $5,500 "per life saved".

@NiklasWiklander I'm almost positive that they used to - I seem to remember at one point they published both "5500 to save a life" and "~3000 to save one life's worth of QALYs", but possibly they stopped? I don't see it in their 2022 estimates. I will update the criteria

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