Background
GiveWell is a nonprofit that conducts in-depth research to determine the most effective charitable giving opportunities. In recent years, their fundraising has shown consistent growth, with approximately $253 million raised from donors excluding Open Philanthropy in 2022, $255 million in 2023, and $308 million in 2024.
In April 2023 they made the following forecast, albeit with wide confidence intervals:
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the total amount of money raised by GiveWell during the 2025 fiscal year (February 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026), excluding all funds from Open Philanthropy. The amount will be determined using GiveWell's official financial reports or public announcements.
Resolution will be based on:
Direct donations to GiveWell, whether or not they are re-granted to non-profits or not. For example, in 2023, this would resolve to $255 million, because that was the amount listed under 'Funds Raised' by GiveWell, though only $216 million were 'Funds Directed'
The following will be excluded:
Any funds from Open Philanthropy
Considerations
GiveWell's fundraising can be influenced by major world events, economic conditions, and shifts in donor behavior
Year-end giving typically accounts for a significant portion of annual donations
Changes in GiveWell's charity recommendations or research findings could impact donor behavior
The resolution amount may take several months into 2026 to be officially reported - GiveWell suggest at least 6 months, though their 2024 numbers were published on their blog in August 2025. So the deadline will be extended as necessary.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ447 | |
| 2 | Ṁ270 | |
| 3 | Ṁ20 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 |
GiveWell’s official 2025 Metrics Report covers February 1, 2025–January 31, 2026. The funding table on printed page 9 (PDF page 10) gives $496,021,942 donated through GiveWell excluding Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy). Using the reported total including direct-to-charity donations, less all Coefficient Giving funds, gives $516,340,404.
The market’s explicit 2023 example of $255m appears to use the inclusive funds-raised definition, while ‘direct donations to GiveWell’ could suggest the first figure. Could you clarify which definition is intended and resolve using the published report?
Report: https://files.givewell.org/files/metrics/GiveWell_Metrics_Report_2025.pdf
Disclosure: I hold YES in both 450–500m and 500–550m.