How will GiveWell's 2027 *Program* salary expenses compare to 2022's?
12%
Less than 50% of 2022
11%
50-70% of 2022
12%
70-90% of 2022
20%
90-110% of 2022
12%
110-130% of 2022
12%
130-150% of 2022
21%
More than 150% of 2022

Will be resolved according to The Clear Fund's (aka GiveWell) audited financial statements - currently at their "Official Records" page. The Program salary expenses for 2022 were 5.119kk - see archived file for 2022, page 7 of the original numbering, or 9 of the pdf, 1st column.

I'll adjust by inflation using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (e.g., using this calculator), or any other index officially adopted as the main official inflation index in the U.S. by the resolution date.

Note that, if GiveWell just ceases for some reason before the resolution date, I'll consider that they'll spend $0 in 2027, and resolve the question early as "Less than 50% of 2022". If it merges with some other organization of a significant size (>10% of its 2022 budget), this will make the comparison difficult, so I'll N/A the question early. I'll also N/A it if they change their costs breakdown in such a way that I can no longer find a comparable budget line for program salaries.

I may postpone the resolution date if the 2027 report is not available by then. I may bet on this market.

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Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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