
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
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The requirement are that such system exist and the general public knows about, either from a leak or an announcement, it doesn’t have to take the job, just that such system exist by the end of 2027, or at Friday, December 31, 2027.
It should be capable of doing 50% of jobs that exist in the year 2020, at least as good as the average person in those jobs, as cost efficient as the people in those jobs. It must be a single system and NOT a collection of system.
(Modified from LDJ’s HLSI benchmark)
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If there is such a leak, how will you validate it? People talk a lot.. even about Strawberry, there were rumors about "median human benchmark". It may be on that level in particular tasks, but far from actually replacing the jobs.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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