tweet: https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1938743486557090123

Gary makes the following predictions:

1. The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S.

2. Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).

3. Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative architectures may do better).

4. Profit margins for LLMs will be slim.

5. There will still be plenty of jobs in which humans experts far outclass AI.

6. Some current (2025) occupations, though, will no longer exist.

7. Driverless taxi rides will be common, but still in limited cities, available in less than 50% of the world’s major (100k+) cities.

8. Domain-specific models will still outperform general-purpose chatbots in many domains (board games, video games, protein folding, logistics, navigation, etc).

9. Humanoid home robots over 5’ tall will still be demos, not in widespread release

This resolves yes if at least 50% of these predictions turn out to be correct. I expect resolving this to be tricky - I am not betting the market and will attempt to have good faith discussions in the comments to try and work through ambiguity.

In the event of singularity - this market resolves N/a.