Will AI top level capabilities generally be judged by question and answer benchmarks in 2029? | Manifold

Will AI top level capabilities generally be judged by question and answer benchmarks in 2029?

8

210Ṁ200

2029

29%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

From https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/12/06/long-list-ai-questions/

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

+5% 1d91% chance

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Will an ai be trained/fine-tuned on Quora by 2035?

What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Related questions

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Will an ai be trained/fine-tuned on Quora by 2035?

What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy