Will bots be the dominant population (>50%) on any leading social media platform by 2030?
Mini
9
277
2030
58%
chance

https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/

For 'leading social media platform', refer to this graph for the top 15 social media platforms on the market. This market resolves conditional on this being provable that at any point in time after the creation of this market, there are (credibly) more bots/chatbots/AI/anything of similar character on one of these platforms than human users.

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Anyone want to explain why they think this should be so high?

I get that the trend is toward more bots, but a social media platform mostly inhabited by bots is a failed social media platform, and I would guess, not a "top" social media platform for long.

Any social media platform that wants to survive will presumably have to take increasingly hard-line measures to prevent bots, like having to register using biometrics or government IDs or something (like Twitter/X is talking about doing) to prove you're human.

Other than a social media platform designed to be mostly populated by bots, that is hard to imagine, but other than that it seems that bots would kill social media platforms, such that we shouldn't really expect to see them dominating on a big one.

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