Will bots make free, open social media infeasible by the end of 2027?
Mini
9
แน€173
2027
35%
chance

Background

Up until around now, you could just e.g. create a free anonymous reddit/twitter account with minimal verification, and start participating in various random internet social circles.

However, in my experience spam has become a worse and worse problem, and it seems like there is no end in sight with what the bots will do.

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if none of the biggest social media platforms allow you to participate as a first-class citizen unless you do something significantly more invasive than a simple email verification.

(If they only allow email verification for addresses that have already been vetted to be non-spam, then the market resolves YES. You either need to be able to verify with an arbitrary email you control, or their regulations for the email have to be so loose that you can easily sign up, before it can resolve NO.)

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Good question. I've been using some fediverse alternatives since Reddit showed its ugly corporate side, and I saw a post about mass bot sign-ups/spam in some instances earlier today. It really does feel like every social media site is just flooded with them.

FEEL FREE TO TRADE AGAIN

WAIT DON'T TRADE IN THIS MARKET

I just realized that I have the resolution criteria inverted compared to the title. Two people have already traded so I think the fairest approach would be to ask them how they interpreted it. By the assumption that they went by the title, I'm gonna change the criterion, but if they say otherwise I'm gonna change the criterion back and change the title.

Just realized I can just close the market until I've got this resolved.

.... Why does Manifold not have DMs yet? ๐Ÿ˜…

@JuJumper @asmith Did you intend to bet for it being infeasible or it being feasible?

I guess I'm gonna give this 24h and then I'm just gonna re-open the market again.

Actually I'm gonna re-open it now and if you meant to bet in the opposite direction I can offer a manalink or whatever as compensation.