Will bots make free, open social media infeasible by the end of 2027?

190Ṁ173

2027

35%

chance

ALL

Background

Up until around now, you could just e.g. create a free anonymous reddit/twitter account with minimal verification, and start participating in various random internet social circles.

However, in my experience spam has become a worse and worse problem, and it seems like there is no end in sight with what the bots will do.

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if none of the biggest social media platforms allow you to participate as a first-class citizen unless you do something significantly more invasive than a simple email verification.

(If they only allow email verification for addresses that have already been vetted to be non-spam, then the market resolves YES. You either need to be able to verify with an arbitrary email you control, or their regulations for the email have to be so loose that you can easily sign up, before it can resolve NO.)

Internet

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will bots be the dominant population (>50%) on any leading social media platform by 2030?

63% chance

Bot-generated content makes up over 30% of social media engagement on a major platform by September 2025

46% chance

Meta to release world's most advanced AI?

11% chance

Will two twitter bots get in an argument with each other before the end of 2025?

92% chance

Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?

32% chance

Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?

16% chance

Will Twitter be an open distributed system before 2026?

5% chance

Will a new social media platform launched after 1/1/23 surpass 500 million active users by 2026?

28% chance

Will it be effectively impossible to tell a human and a high quality AI apart on social media before 2026?

Sort by:

Good question. I've been using some fediverse alternatives since Reddit showed its ugly corporate side, and I saw a post about mass bot sign-ups/spam in some instances earlier today. It really does feel like every social media site is just flooded with them.

FEEL FREE TO TRADE AGAIN

WAIT DON'T TRADE IN THIS MARKET

I just realized that I have the resolution criteria inverted compared to the title. Two people have already traded so I think the fairest approach would be to ask them how they interpreted it. By the assumption that they went by the title, I'm gonna change the criterion, but if they say otherwise I'm gonna change the criterion back and change the title.