This market resolves YES if credible research or platform disclosures reveal that bot-generated content constitutes over 30% of engagement (likes, shares, comments, etc.) on at least one major social media platform (X/Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, etc.) by September 1, 2025, and NO otherwise.

The article discusses how "bots are one of the most underdiscussed problems we have" and cites research showing that "1,300 bots garnered about 3 million views during the first Republican primary debate in 2023."

Resolution will be based on peer-reviewed research, platform transparency reports, or investigations by reputable technology or news organizations that quantify bot activity.

Sources for resolution:

• Platform transparency reports

• Academic research on bot prevalence

• Reports from organizations that track social media manipulation

  Background

  Social media platforms have long struggled with automated accounts (bots) that artificially inflate engagement metrics. While platforms regularly purge fake accounts, the sophistication of bots continues to evolve. Currently, there is no publicly available data indicating that bot-generated content constitutes over 30% of engagement on any major platform, though research has shown concerning levels of bot activity in specific contexts, such as political discussions.

  A notable example occurred during the first Republican primary debate in 2023, where approximately 1,300 bots reportedly generated about 3 million views, demonstrating the potential scale of bot influence on social media discourse.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market resolves YES if by September 1, 2025:

  • Credible evidence (peer-reviewed research, platform transparency reports, or investigations by reputable technology/news organizations) demonstrates that bot-generated content constitutes more than 30% of total engagement on at least one major social media platform.

  • "Major platform" includes X/Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, LinkedIn, Reddit, YouTube, or other platforms with comparable global user bases.

  • "Engagement" refers to measurable interactions such as likes, shares, comments, retweets, views, or other platform-specific metrics.

  • "Bot-generated content" refers to content or interactions created by automated accounts rather than human users.

  The market resolves NO if by September 1, 2025, no credible evidence emerges showing bot-generated content exceeding the 30% threshold on any major platform.

  Considerations

  • Platform definitions of "bot activity" may vary, so resolution will rely on standardized definitions from credible research.

  • Temporary spikes in bot activity (e.g., during specific events) will not qualify unless they represent the platform's overall engagement metrics.

  • If a platform introduces new metrics or redefines engagement measurements, resolution will consider the most comparable metrics to today's standards.