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This should resolve YES I think, it's been at or above 45 for the past week

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This market is seriously underestimating the Republican bias of Polymarket

Biden was only barely at 45% for a while before the debate. I'm really not convinced Harris can sway their confidence

I think the republican bias of polymarket goes away when the returns are gotten in weeks rather than many months, bc then the better traders can make a good profit from few % price inaccuracies, where they can't as much atm? not sure tho, sometimes markets quickly correct

Just to confirm: does this mean any period of a week, or the specific week immediately preceding the election?

any period of a week!

You mean for a period of 7 consecutive days or a total of 7 days from any period? @transmissions11

consecutive

Ooh, a knock-in option!

that's a very interesting market!

because if you believe it, it is definitely a correct move to buy Kamala at 33%, then set a limit order to sell at 45%. In >75% of the time, you will realize ~36% returns = 27% returns for a period of ~4 months, or 133% annualized gain!

The cost is that you have to have unhedged stock in Kamala winning, but if you believe that 33% right now is approximately accurate, that is no problem.

So! Either this market is seriously mispriced, or Polymarket is seriously mispriced (to overestimate Kamala!) or you have a good arbitrage opportunity.

I will seriously consider doing this trade.

Thank you

This market was quite mispriced

I don't think this is right, because most of that 25% where it never hits your limit order, you don't get 0% returns, you get negative returns. Let's say you buy $100 at 33%, buying 300 shares of Kamala YES, and you put your limit order at 45%.

75% of the time: limit order goes through, you sell for $135.

20% of the time: limit order doesn't go through, Kamala loses (because she can't win if she never goes above 45%!), you get $0.

5% of the time: market resolves NO but limit order still goes through (surprise Kamala win scenario), you get $135.

So in expectation you end up with $135 * 0.8 = $108. 8% returns is not bad but is very different from 27%, and if this market is 70% instead of 75% then I think you end up about even.

You're right!

But this market states that Kamala has to be at 45% for over a week. Which means I don't have to wait until the election, I can sell 6.99 days before the election, and realistically recover most of the value.

I still disagree, I think. Conditional on the limit order not being hit until 7 days before the election, Kamala would be lower than 33% in expectation. So it wouldn’t matter if you sold at that point or not, you wouldn’t be able to recover most of the value.

is this by graph? would a fatfinger spike invalidate the week?

new to creating markets... would default to saying yes because polymarket is fairlyyyy liquid and will only get more liquid as we approach november — but if you want me to specify the median of the week that captures the spirit of what i'm going for too

well i guess maybe it doesn't. median of each day >= 45% or something? yuck this gets complicated

It’s probably easiest to say spikes of less than some amount of time (an hour for example) don’t count

that sounds good to me. is it customary to update the description or anything or is acknowledgment via comments sufficient?

Probably best practice to put it in the description so it doesn't get buried in the comments but it's fine either way really