As of July 24th, she's never breached 40%:

Spikes that last <1 hour will be treated as artifacts and ignored when resolving.

## Related questions

Ooh, a knock-in option!

that's a very interesting market!

because if you believe it, it is definitely a correct move to buy Kamala at 33%, then set a limit order to sell at 45%. In >75% of the time, you will realize ~36% returns = 27% returns for a period of ~4 months, or 133% annualized gain!

The cost is that you have to have unhedged stock in Kamala winning, but if you believe that 33% right now is approximately accurate, that is no problem.

So! Either this market is seriously mispriced, or Polymarket is seriously mispriced (to overestimate Kamala!) or you have a good arbitrage opportunity.

I will seriously consider doing this trade.

I don't think this is right, because most of that 25% where it never hits your limit order, you don't get 0% returns, you get negative returns. Let's say you buy $100 at 33%, buying 300 shares of Kamala YES, and you put your limit order at 45%.

75% of the time: limit order goes through, you sell for $135.

20% of the time: limit order doesn't go through, Kamala loses (because she can't win if she never goes above 45%!), you get $0.

5% of the time: market resolves NO but limit order still goes through (surprise Kamala win scenario), you get $135.

So in expectation you end up with $135 * 0.8 = $108. 8% returns is not bad but is very different from 27%, and if this market is 70% instead of 75% then I think you end up about even.

is this by graph? would a fatfinger spike invalidate the week?