This market will close on September 15th and resolve based on the number posted here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

under the most recent update as of 8:59 pm pacific time, September 16th. (i.e., this market closes a day before it resolves)

Nate Silver's election model is currently interpreting polling numbers as being 2 percentage points more favorable towards Harris than they should be, under the assumption that Harris is receiving a temporary "convention bounce" to her polls. If this assumption holds up, Harris' polling average will drop over the coming weeks. Currently, she is at +3.5 nationally, so will she be below +1.5 in two weeks?

I will not bet on this market.