If you think there's a 65% chance of it moving up to 60%, why not buy some YES shares on Polymarket, then sell them for profit?

Why is this so far from 50/50? Do people think Polymarket will move in a predictable direction (if so, why does Manifold basically agree with Polymarket)?

I'm betting on the meta-game here, prediction markets have been slow to pick up on the vibe shift

It could also be that traders expect that 60% would happen much sooner, so you're seeing interest rate effects