Will the Democratic presidential candidate be favored to win after the DNC convention? (>50% win probability)
97
1kṀ44kresolved Aug 29
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
The next month will be critical for the new candidate, presumably Kamala Harris, to make the case to the electorate and make up the polling deficit.
I will resolve it one week after the DNC convention (8/19-22) to Yes if the Democratic candidate is at >50.0% probability on BOTH Manifold and Election Betting Odds.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@PlainBG Based on your comment, this resolves YES; both are above 50% at this moment (56% on Manifold, 50.9% on Election Betting Odds).
This is close to even on Election Betting Odds. Polymarket getting close to a flip. https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html
Reminder I will resolve it based on the winning party market (not the Harris win probability since there is a small difference):
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