![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FPlainBG%2F567evgao0a.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will the Democratic presidential candidate be favored to win after the DNC convention? (>50% win probability)
Basic
97
แน45kresolved Aug 29
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
The next month will be critical for the new candidate, presumably Kamala Harris, to make the case to the electorate and make up the polling deficit.
I will resolve it one week after the DNC convention (8/19-22) to Yes if the Democratic candidate is at >50.0% probability on BOTH Manifold and Election Betting Odds.
Get แน1,000 play money
Related questions
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
59% chance
Will the democratic party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
53% chance
If anyone but Biden is the Democratic Party nominee, will they win the election?
Will the Democratic candidate win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
76% chance
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?
58% chance
Which keys will the Democratic Candidate win?
Conditional upon the Democratic party replacing Joe Biden as nominee, will they win the election?
Will the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential election?
54% chance
Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
43% chance
Will the Democrats win the Presidency in 2024 if they do/donโt hold a brokered convention?
๐ Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | แน3,532 | |
2 | แน610 | |
3 | แน431 | |
4 | แน339 | |
5 | แน287 |
Sort by:
@PlainBG Based on your comment, this resolves YES; both are above 50% at this moment (56% on Manifold, 50.9% on Election Betting Odds).
This is close to even on Election Betting Odds. Polymarket getting close to a flip. https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html
Reminder I will resolve it based on the winning party market (not the Harris win probability since there is a small difference):
Related questions
Related questions
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
59% chance
Which keys will the Democratic Candidate win?
Will the democratic party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
53% chance
Conditional upon the Democratic party replacing Joe Biden as nominee, will they win the election?
If anyone but Biden is the Democratic Party nominee, will they win the election?
Will the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential election?
54% chance
Will the Democratic candidate win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
76% chance
Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
43% chance
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?
58% chance
Will the Democrats win the Presidency in 2024 if they do/donโt hold a brokered convention?