Will the Democratic presidential candidate be favored to win after the DNC convention? (>50% win probability)

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resolved Aug 29

Resolved

YES

ALL

The next month will be critical for the new candidate, presumably Kamala Harris, to make the case to the electorate and make up the polling deficit.

I will resolve it one week after the DNC convention (8/19-22) to Yes if the Democratic candidate is at >50.0% probability on BOTH Manifold and Election Betting Odds.

️ Politics

🇺🇸 US Politics

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

Democratic Party

Joe Biden

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bought Ṁ500 YES

@PlainBG Based on your comment, this resolves YES; both are above 50% at this moment (56% on Manifold, 50.9% on Election Betting Odds).

This is close to even on Election Betting Odds. Polymarket getting close to a flip. https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html

Reminder I will resolve it based on the winning party market (not the Harris win probability since there is a small difference):

Manifold (https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-f4158bf9278a)
Election Betting Odds (https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html)

Assume it'll be some sort of average of the win probability on that day, to prevent whale bets from briefly pushing it out of equilibrium?

If at some time on August 29, the probability is above 50% on both Manifold and Election Betting Odds, it will resolve positive. They don't have to be above at the same time, each has to be above at least once on that day

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