Will a LLM trained with FP4 have competitive performance in 2 years time?

16

1kṀ2955

resolved Mar 4

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

"Currently, the technology for 4-bit training does not exists, but research looks promising and I expect the first high performance FP4 Large Language Model (LLM) with competitive predictive performance to be trained in 1-2 years time." (see: https://timdettmers.com/2023/01/16/which-gpu-for-deep-learning/)

Granted, the model must be open source for us to know, so the market will resolve based on publicly available information.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ158
2		Ṁ152
3		Ṁ90
4		Ṁ55
5		Ṁ33

People are also trading

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will a majority of Harvard undergrads train an LLM within 3 years as per Altman?

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Related questions

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will a majority of Harvard undergrads train an LLM within 3 years as per Altman?

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy