Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
10
1kṀ931
2028
31%
chance

In 2023, it was said:

Currently, the technology for 4-bit training does not exists, but research looks promising and I expect the first high performance FP4 Large Language Model (LLM) with competitive predictive performance to be trained in 1-2 years time.

(see: https://timdettmers.com/2023/01/16/which-gpu-for-deep-learning/)

Currently, the technology for 4-bit training does exists, but research doesn't look promising and I expect a high performance FP4 Large Language Model (LLM) with competitive predictive performance to maybe never be trained. Will it be trained, before 2028?

granted, the model must be opensource, or have public information about its training, for it to be considered, as we would otherwise not know.

frontier-level performance is a vibe based estimate that the model is in the top 5 most capable models that have been publicly announced.

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3mo

If DeepSeek-r1 had the same performance metrics and had been trained in FP4, would this market resolve YES? What does "frontier-level" actually mean?

3mo

@SaviorofPlant That’s a good question, frontier model is as yet undefined and hmmmm

3mo

See

https://manifold.markets/typedfemale/will-a-llm-trained-with-fp4-have-co

3mo

i linked it in the description but it wasnt that obvious so ill show it more properly. Good market!

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